tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5644037297514681412024-03-13T18:31:55.077+09:00雪渓嶺/설계령日韓両国の山と外為情報をお送りします。/한일 양국의 산과 외환 정보를 알려 드립니다.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.comBlogger82125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-44022542089714068332016-07-17T09:52:00.001+09:002016-07-17T09:53:53.716+09:00五台山(オデサン/1,563m/江原道)<div style="background: white; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;">五台山は、<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%A4%AA%E7%99%BD%E5%B1%B1%E8%84%88"><span lang="EN-US">太白山脈</span></a></span>の中心部から西へ<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://kotobank.jp/word/%E3%83%81%E3%83%A3%E3%83%AA%E3%83%A7%E3%83%B3(%E8%BB%8A%E5%B6%BA)%E5%B1%B1%E8%84%88"><span lang="EN-US">車嶺山脈</span></a></span>が伸びる分岐点にそびえる山である。主峰の毘盧峰(ピロボン)のほか、虎嶺峰<span lang="EN-US">(</span>ホリョンボン<span lang="EN-US"> 1,531m)</span>、象王峰(サンワンボン<span lang="EN-US"> 1,491m</span>)、頭老峰(トゥロボン<span lang="EN-US"> 1,422m</span>)、東台山(トンデサン<span lang="EN-US"> 1,434m</span>)などの高峰が連なる。この<span lang="EN-US">5</span>峰及びその一帯の寺院で成される<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B9%B3%E6%98%8C%E9%83%A1"><span lang="EN-US">平昌</span></a></span>五台山地区と、老人峰(ノインボン<span lang="EN-US"> 1,338m</span>)一帯の<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%B1%9F%E9%99%B5%E5%B8%82"><span lang="EN-US">江陵</span></a></span>小金剛地区に大別される。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">肥沃な土壌と豊富な森林資源を有する典型的な「土山」で、冬季は降雪量が多い。特に<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%9C%88%E7%B2%BE%E5%AF%BA"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">月精寺</span></span></a></span>入口からびっしりと茂るモミの森や、中腹のダケカンバ、山頂付近のコノテガシワとイチイの群落、虎嶺渓谷(ホリョンゲゴッ)のオヒョウの群落は壮観である。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">動物はイノシシ、ジャコウジカ、アナグマ、タヌキ、ヤギなど<span lang="EN-US">26</span>種の哺乳類と、ヤマゲラ、ワシミミズクなど<span lang="EN-US">85</span>種の鳥類、ヤマメなど<span lang="EN-US">20</span>種の淡水魚類、その他<span lang="EN-US">21</span>種の爬虫類・両生類と<span lang="EN-US">1,124</span>種の昆虫が棲息している。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">周辺には<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%9B%B9%E6%B8%93%E5%AE%97"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">大韓仏教曹渓宗</span></span></a></span>第<span lang="EN-US">4</span>教区本寺の月精寺、上院寺(サンウォンサ)、寂滅宝宮(チョンミョルポグン)、北台寺(プッテサ)、中台寺(チュンデサ)、西台寺(ソデサ)など由緒ある仏教寺院と、五台山史庫址(<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%A4%A7%E9%9F%93%E6%B0%91%E5%9B%BD%E6%8C%87%E5%AE%9A%E5%8F%B2%E8%B7%A1"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">史跡</span></span></a>037</span>号)など多くの文化遺跡がある。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">文化財としては上院寺銅鐘(<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%A4%A7%E9%9F%93%E6%B0%91%E5%9B%BD%E6%8C%87%E5%AE%9A%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%9D"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">国宝</span></span></a>36</span>号)、<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%E6%9C%88%E7%B2%BE%E5%AF%BA%E5%85%AB%E8%A7%92%E4%B9%9D%E5%B1%A4%E7%9F%B3%E5%A1%94&action=edit&redlink=1" title="月精寺八角九層石塔 (存在しないページ)"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span lang="EN-US">月精寺八角九層石塔</span></span></a></span>(国宝<span lang="EN-US">48</span>号)、<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://terms.naver.com/entry.nhn?docId=1131546&cid=40942&categoryId=33523" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span lang="EN-US">月精寺石造菩薩<span lang="EN-US">座</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span lang="EN-US">像</span></span></a></span>(<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%A4%A7%E9%9F%93%E6%B0%91%E5%9B%BD%E6%8C%87%E5%AE%9A%E5%AE%9D%E7%89%A9"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">宝物</span></span></a>139</span>号)などがある。<span lang="EN-US">1975</span>年<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月に国立公園に指定され、年間<span lang="EN-US">80</span>万人程度の観光客や登山客が訪れる。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><<span lang="EN-US">2011</span>年<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月<span lang="EN-US">23</span>日に撮影した動画><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/JIem6w0cxck/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JIem6w0cxck?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
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<span style="font-family: "ms pゴシック"; mso-bidi-font-family: "MS Pゴシック"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><登山地図></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-70160025077983356762016-07-16T19:26:00.005+09:002016-07-17T10:04:24.703+09:00지나친 엔화강세, 달러/엔 환율이 반발할 여지는?<div style="background: white; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">지난 달 중순에 올린 이 칼럼에서 필자는
달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔 환율 전망에 대해 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“100</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔부터 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">105</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔 부근에서 바닥 시세를 형성한 후 약간
반발하고 올해 후반에는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">105</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔부터 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">115</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔 정도의 레인지를 중심으로 움직이게 될
것</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">으로 내다봤다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">그런데 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">6</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">월 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">24</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일에 영국에서 예상외로 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">EU</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">탈퇴가 선택되자 달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔 환율은 유동성이 고갈된 가운데 미끄러지듯
급락하고 상정했던 하한인 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">100</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔을 밑돌아 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">99.00</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔에 달하는 움직임을 보였다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">인하 방향으로의 재검토는 필요할까</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">?<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">결론부터 말하면 필자는 그 필요가 없다고
생각한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. “</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">리스크의 후퇴</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">” “</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">테크니칼적인 과열감</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">” “</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">펀더멘털</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">” </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">등의 이유로 </span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">100</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔 부근 혹은 이것을 밑도는 수준은 일시적으로 그쳐 올해 후반의 중심적인 레인지는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">105</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔부터 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">115</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔 부근이 될 전개</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">를 계속해서 메인 시나리오로 생각한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">지금부터 그 근거를 설명하자</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">제</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">의 리먼 쇼크는 기우</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">작년부터 올해 전반에 걸쳐 몇 가지 리스크
고조가 엔화강세의 요인으로 생각됐다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">특히 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">유가의 급락</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">” “</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">중국경제에 대한 유려</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">” “</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">미국경기의 감속 우려</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">” </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">등이 재료시됐으며 최근에는 영국의 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">EU </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">탈퇴 선택이 엔화강세를 초래했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">그러나 올해 후반에 걸쳐 이러한 리스크에
대한 위기감은 완화될 것으로 내다본다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">실제로 유가는 산유국 간의 대화 시작 등을
이유로 반발했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">미국의 셰일 오일 산출을 위한 굴착도 크게 감소돼 있어 올해
후반에 다시 유가가 저가를 경신할 움직임은 상정하지 않는다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">유가의 반발은 리스크를 통한 엔화강세 압력의
후퇴뿐만 아니라 무역수지의 악화라는 펀더멘털 면에서도 엔화약세 압력에 이어진다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">중국경제는 낙관할 수 있는 상황이 아니지만
완만한 연착륙을 향해 당국이 외양에 개의치 않는 부양책을 실시하고 있어 눈앞의 위기감은 후퇴하고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">연착륙할 수 있을지 없을지는 아직 예측하기
어렵지만 그 결과는 올해가 아니라 몇 년 뒤에 판명되지 않을까 생각된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">게다가 미국에서는 불투명한 외부환경 등을
이유로 금리인상을 계속 미루고 있지만 최근 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">7</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">월에 발표된 고용통계 등 몇 가지 경제지표에서도
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">경제의 완만한 회복경향</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이 다시 확인됐다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">업적의 개선 기대를 배경으로 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">NY</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">다우와 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">SP500 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">모두 사상 최고치를 경신했으며 이 움직임은
자산가격과 고용</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">임금 등의 경로를 통해 올해 후반에도 미국경제를 뒷받침하는 요인이
될 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">영국의 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">EU</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">탈퇴에 대한 영향</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">평가는 아직 불투명감이 강하지만 무역 등을
통한 직접적인 세계경제에 대한 악영향은 경미한 수준에 머무를 전망이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">세계적인 주가하락 등 금융시장의 동요도
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">7</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">월 중순을 맞이하는 가운데 서서히 평정을 되찾고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일부에는 부동산 등 영국자산의 급락으로
인한 펀드의 손실과 금융기관의 불량채권 증가 등 부동산 거품 붕괴가 밸런스 시트의 훼손을 통해 금융 시스템 불안으로 이어진 리먼 쇼크를 상기시키는
상황이 보이지만 당시보다도 위기관리에 관한 규제와 대책이 진행돼 있고 탈퇴 선택의 경우에 대비해 금융당국이 일정한 준비를 하고 있어 영국의 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">EU </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">탈퇴는 제</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">의 리먼 쇼크가 되지 않을 리라 생각한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">메이 영국 신임 총리도 취임해 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">EU</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">에 대한 탈퇴 통고도 연 단위로 연기될
가능성도 나온 가운데 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">불안은 맴돌지만 지금까지와 변하지 않는</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">” </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">상황이 될 것 같다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">스코틀랜드</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"> 독립을 묻는 움직임에는 주의가 필요하나 올해 후반에 영국의 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">EU </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">탈퇴 문제가 세계경제에 미칠 악영향은 직후에
비해 침착해질 것으로 보고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">테크니칼적으로도 엔화강세는 지나쳐</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔 환율은 작년 말부터 거의 일방적인 엔화강세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">달러약세가 계속해 명확히 하향추세이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">올해는 이미 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">22.70</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">최고치 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">월 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">29</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">121.70</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">최저치 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">6</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">월 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">24</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">99.00</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이나 하락했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2000</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">년 이후의 움직임을 보면 리먼 쇼크가 있었던
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2008</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">년에 상하 약 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">25</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔 움직였으나 올해는 아직 반년밖에 지나지
않았음에도 불구하고 그 가격차는 이미 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2008</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">년에 이어 커지고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">반년 간의 움직임으로서는 테크니칼적인 과열감이
있으며 일본의 펀더멘털에 대한 악영향도 크다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">투기꾼들의 포지션을 볼 때 참고되는 시카고
국제금융시장</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">(IMM)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">의 비상업 부문 엔화매수 포지션도 과거 최고수준에 쌓여 있어
투기꾼의 엔화매수 여력도 한정적이라고 볼 수 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">명확히 하향추세이기는 하나 테크니칼적인
과열감이 강해 지금까지와 같은 엔화강세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">달러약세 페이스가 올해 후반에도 계속될 리라고는 생각하기 어렵다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">또 전술한 바와 같이 미국경제는 계속 완만하게
확대되고 있으며 주가지수도 사상 최고치를 경신하고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">외부환경을 주시하면서 연방준비이사회</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">(FRB)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">는 금리인상에 대해 신중한 자세를 유지할
것으로 보이나 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">언젠가는 금리인상</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이라는 기대가 시장에서 맴돌 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일본 측에서는 한층 더 완화 압력이 강해질
것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔 환율은 내각부의 기업행동에 관한 설문조사에서
나타내지는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">수출을 하고 있는 기업의 채산 환율</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">인 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">=103.20</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔을 밑도는 움직임을 보였다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">채산이 맞지 않으면 당연히 기업업적은 적자에
빠져 주가하락을 비롯해 고용과 소득에 악영향을 미친다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일본은행이 플러스 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2%</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">를 목표로 하는 생선식품을 제외한 소비자
물가도 올해 들어 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">0 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이하로 추이하는 가운데 완화를 단행해야 할 상황이 되고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">최근에 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">헬리콥터 머니</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">라는 써서는 안 되는 극론이 화제가 돼 있는 것도 엔화강세가
일본경제에 대한 악영향을 강화하는 가운데 일본은행의 완화정책은 속수무책이라는 평가를 받으며 대통령 선거를 앞둔 미국에서 환율개입을 인정받지 못한다는
곤경을 대역전하는 수단이라는 측면이 있기 때문일 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">앞으로도 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">영국의 분열 리스크</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">와 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">트럼프 미 대통령 탄생 리스크</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">” </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">등 주시해야 할 리스크는 존재하지만 현재로서는
실현 가능성이 낮다고 보고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">작년 이후 미일 경황감 격차와 금리차의 확대를 무시하며 리스크
회피 등을 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">주어</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">로 진행된 일방적인 달러약세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔화강세는 일정한 수정을 강요당할 가능성이
높다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">로이터 외환 포럼</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<u><span lang="EN-US" style="color: blue; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://jp.reuters.com/article/column-forexforum-kengo-suzuki-idJPKCN0ZU0Q4">http://jp.reuters.com/article/column-forexforum-kengo-suzuki-idJPKCN0ZU0Q4</a></span></u></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-90981041571607713502016-02-09T20:29:00.001+09:002016-02-09T20:30:05.829+09:00俗離山(ソンニサン/1,058m/忠清北道・慶尚北道)<div style="background: white; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;">俗離山は<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%BF%A0%E6%B8%85%E5%8C%97%E9%81%93"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">忠清北道</span></span></a><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%A0%B1%E6%81%A9%E9%83%A1"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">報恩郡</span></span></a></span>と<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%A7%90%E5%B1%B1%E9%83%A1"><span lang="EN-US">槐山郡</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%85%B6%E5%B0%9A%E5%8C%97%E9%81%93"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">慶尚北道</span></span></a><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B0%9A%E5%B7%9E%E5%B8%82"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">尚州市</span></span></a></span>にまたがる山である。花崗岩を基盤に変成堆積岩が混じっており、花崗岩の部分は鋭くそびえ、変成堆積岩の部分は深く窪み、高い峰と深い谷が絶景を成している。別名、光明山(クァンミョンサン)、彌智山(ミジサン)、小金剛山(ソクムガンサン)とも呼ばれる。<span lang="EN-US">1970</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月<span lang="EN-US">24</span>日に、国立公園に指定された。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">俗離山の見どころ<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%B3%95%E4%BD%8F%E5%AF%BA_(%E5%A0%B1%E6%81%A9%E9%83%A1)"><span lang="EN-US">法住寺</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%AD%A3%E4%BA%8C%E5%93%81%E6%9D%BE"><span lang="EN-US">正二品松</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]-->マルティ峠<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">伝承によると、<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%AB%98%E9%BA%97"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">高麗</span></span></a><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%A4%AA%E7%A5%96_(%E9%AB%98%E9%BA%97%E7%8E%8B)"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">太祖王建</span></span></a></span>が訪れた際に初めて道を整えたと伝わる。王建の祖父である作帝建が俗離山に隠居し、亡くなるまで仏教を耽読しつつ暮らしたからだという。その後<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%9D%8E%E6%B0%8F%E6%9C%9D%E9%AE%AE"><span lang="EN-US">李氏朝鮮</span></a></span>時代に<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%96%E7%A5%96_(%E6%9C%9D%E9%AE%AE%E7%8E%8B)"><span lang="EN-US">世祖</span></a></span>が俗離山に登る際にも、ぬかるんでいた道に平たく切り出した薄石を敷き、行列のための道を整備した。その後は歩道のような形で存在していたが、現代的な登山道として整備されたのは<span lang="EN-US">1924</span>年のことであった。当時忠清北道知事を務めていた<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%9C%B4%E9%87%8D%E9%99%BD"><span lang="EN-US">朴重陽</span></a></span>は、仏寺を参拝するべく俗離山を訪れたが、泥でぬかるんだ道を見て憤慨し、マルティ峠に登る登山道を整備するよう当時の報恩郡守などに促した。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]-->文蔵台<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">文蔵台(ムンジャンデ)は、行政区域上、慶尚北道尚州市化北面(ファブンミョン)壮岩里(チャンアムニ)山<span lang="EN-US">33</span>番地に位置し、標高は<span lang="EN-US">1,054m</span>で俗離山の中で<span lang="EN-US">2</span>番目に高い峰である。法住寺から東へ約<span lang="EN-US">6km</span>の地点にある。古くは、雲の中に隠れていることから「雲蔵台(ウンジャンデ)」と呼ばれていたが、李氏朝鮮時代に世祖が療養のため俗離山を訪れたある日の夜、夢の中に貴公子が現れ、「近隣の霊峰に登り祈りを捧げれば、その身に吉があるだろう」とのお告げがあった。翌日ここに登ったところ頂上で三綱五倫を明示した書物を発見、その場で一日中読みふけったことから文蔵台と呼ばれるようになった。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">文蔵台は、山頂に大きな岩がある特異な形をしており、この岩には<span lang="EN-US">50</span>人が同時に座ることができる。俗離山のうち登山客が最も多く訪れるところで、登山道は<span lang="EN-US">2</span>コースが整備されている。一つは忠清北道報恩郡の法住寺から登るコース、もう一つは慶尚北道尚州市化北面から登るコースで、所要時間は成人男性基準で前者が約<span lang="EN-US">2</span>時間<span lang="EN-US">40</span>分、後者が約<span lang="EN-US">1</span>時間<span lang="EN-US">30</span>分程度である。山頂には物資運搬や遭難者救助のためのヘリポートが設置されている。また携帯電話の基地局も設置運用されている。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">文蔵台から約<span lang="EN-US">200m</span>離れたところに二つの登山道の合流地点があり、ここに<span lang="EN-US">1975</span>年から文蔵台休憩所が設置され、登山客に飲食の提供をしていた。しかし、俗離山の生態復元のため<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>年<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月に撤去された。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]-->毘盧峰<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">毘盧峰(ピロボン)<span style="color: #333333;">は、</span>文蔵台から天王峰へと向かう途中にある峰である。法住寺からは約<span lang="EN-US">5.77km</span>の距離に位置しており、標高は<span lang="EN-US">973m</span>である。「毘盧」とは「<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%AF%98%E7%9B%A7%E9%81%AE%E9%82%A3%E4%BB%8F"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">毘盧遮那<span lang="EN-US">仏</span></span></span></a></span></span><span style="font-size: large;">」からつけられた名で、サンスクリット語で全てをあまねく照らすという「光明」を意味する。<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%96%B0%E7%BE%85"><span lang="EN-US">新羅</span></a></span>中期の高僧真表(チンピョ)が俗離山を訪れた日の翌朝、座禅を組んでいた時にその部屋の中が明るい光でいっぱいになり、これに驚いた大師が扉を開けてみると、向かい側の山頂から<span lang="EN-US">5</span>色のまぶしい光が照らされていた。大師が慌てて合掌拝礼し光源へ駆けつけると、岩に座っていた毘盧遮那仏が西方の空に向かって雲に乗り去っていった。大師は毘盧遮那仏に直接拝謁できた峰に、毘盧遮那仏の名から毘盧峰と名付けたという。最近は西遊記に登場する孫悟空の姿に似た形の岩で話題になっている。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">天王峰(チョヌァンボン)は俗離山の最高峰で、標高は<span lang="EN-US">1,058m</span>である。山頂には天王峰と漢字で彫られた標石が立っている。文蔵台から見ると、三角形の形をしている。法住寺の東方約<span lang="EN-US">5.7km</span>に位置し、法住寺から登る場合、成人男性基準で約<span lang="EN-US">3</span>時間<span lang="EN-US">30</span>分所要。ただ、法住寺から文蔵台へと登るコースに比べると相対的に平坦である。天王峰にも遭難者救助のためのヘリポートが設置されている。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><<span lang="EN-US">2010</span>年<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">5</span>日に撮影した動画><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><悟空岩><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "ms pゴシック"; mso-bidi-font-family: "MS Pゴシック"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><登山地図></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "ms pゴシック"; font-size: large; mso-bidi-font-family: "MS Pゴシック"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;">(動画の<span style="color: red;">登り=赤</span> <span style="color: blue;">下り=青</span>)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-77298717999788589262016-02-07T07:18:00.007+09:002016-02-07T07:19:11.337+09:001달러=130엔으로, 마이너스 금리로 재기동<div style="background: white; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">모든 시장 관계자들이 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">설마</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">라고 깜짝 놀랐다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일본은행이 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">월 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">29</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일의 금융정책 결정회의에서 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">마이너스 금리를 더한 양적 질적 금융완화</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">” </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">도입을 발표했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">초과 준비 금리의 인하조차 거의 예상되지
않았던 가운데 일약 마이너스 금리 정책을 발동한 것은 더할 나위 없는 놀람이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">구로다 하루히코 일본은행 총재에게는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2% </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">인플레 달성이라는 공약이 시도되는 중요한
장면이었다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">더구나 기존의 양적 질적 완화의 확대는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">추가완화 여지가 사라질 뿐</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이라고 받아들여 공표효과가 발휘되지 않을
위험성이 있었다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이번의 마이너스 금리 도입은 일본은행이
인플레 목표를 견지하기 위해 현시점에서 상정할 수 있는 궁극적인 타개책이었을 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">금리정책 부활과 함께 추가완화 여지가 되살아난
것도 중요한 전진이었으며</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이번의 정책 결정은 작년 말부터 하락 경향이었던 달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔 환율에는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">게임 체인저</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">가 됐다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이 타이밍에 마이너스 금리정책을 도입한
목적은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔화강세 저지 및 엔화약세 용납으로 인한 인플레율 상승</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">밖에 없을 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">그렇게 생각하는 이유는 여러 개 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">우선 일본은행은 경기와 인플레 지표에 완화
발동을 정당화할 수 있는 악화 조짐이 없는 가운데 대부분의 이코노미스트가 놀라는 행동에 나섰다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">시장을 중시한 판단이었음에 의심할 여지가
없다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">실제로 구로다 총재는 회견에서 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">다보스 회의에 가기 전에 완화책 검토를
지시했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">고 밝혔으며</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">, 1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">월 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">21</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일에 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">116</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔 대에서 추이했던 엔화강세를 중대시한
가능성이 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">더구나 이번에 일본은행이 공표한 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">전망 리포트</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">에는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">외환시장이 소비자 물가에 미치는 영향</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이 거론됐으며 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">장래에 대해서도 기왕의 엔화약세는 지속적인
물가상승 효과를 가진다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">라고 명기돼 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일본은행의 엔화약세 지향이 비쳐 보인다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">필자는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">=115</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔을 밑돌면 국내외의 투자 흐름과 기업
행동에 비가역적인 타격을 줄 것</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">으로 추가완화의 중요성을 호소해 왔는데</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">구로다 총재도 비슷한 위기감을 가지고 있었던
것 같다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">특히 기업에는 신년도의 환율 전제를 설정하는 시기이기도 하며
임금 협상이 본격화하는 시기이기도 했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일본은행에 엔화강세를 방치하는 선택지는 없었다고 할 수 있을
것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">환율 헤지 없는 외국채권 운용이 촉구될
공산이 커</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">그러면 실제로 일본은행이 노리는 엔화약세는
일어날 것인가</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">? </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">은행수익에 대한 타격을 막고 신중대출 등의 부작용을 억제하기
위해 채용된 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“3</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">계층 방식</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">을 어떻게 평가하는지다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">시장의 일부에는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">마이너스 금리 적용범위가 너무 작다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">” </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">등의 견해도 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">그러나 금리 형성 메커니즘에 중요한 것은
어디까지나 신규 자금에 적용되는 한계 금리이며 마이너스 금리 효과는 문제없이 침투될 것으로 보인다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이 점은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">월 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일 오전 시점에서 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">10</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">년 국채 이율이 정책 발표 전에 비해 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">18bp</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">라는 대폭 하락한 것과</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">마찬가지로 계층 방식을 실시하고 있는 스위스
중앙은행 등이 시장금리 상승에 성공하고 있는 것 등으로 입증된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">또 일본은행은 초과준비뿐만 아니라 은행의
지나친 현금 보유에도 사실상 마이너스 금리를 적용한다는 방법으로 마이너스 금리를 피하는 길도 봉쇄하고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">그 결과 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">20bp </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">부리 인하는 그 만큼의 엔화 하락 효과를
충분히 발휘할 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">미국의 정책금리 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">25bp </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">인상으로 인한 엔화약세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">달러강세 효과가 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2.5-5</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔 정도이니 이번의 일본은행 조치도 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2-4</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔 정도의 엔화약세 압력이 될 계산이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일본은행이 국채매입 금리에 하한을 설정하지
않았던 것도 중요하고 이미 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">9</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">년 존까지 국채이율이 마이너스가 돼 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">국채 발행 잔고 중 금리가 마이너스 영역에
돌입한 비율은 약 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">70%</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">까지 급속히 확대됐다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">정책 발동 전은 약</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">45%). </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이율 곡선의 광범위에서 국내금리가 젤로
이하에 수몰된 결과 운용난에 직면하는 국내 투자가에게는 왼환 헤지가 없는 경우도 포함한 외국채권의 운용이 촉구될 공산이 크다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이러한 금리차를 통한 엔화약세 효과 외에
일본은행의 엔화약세 지향이 뚜렷해져 그로 인한 공표효과도 중요할 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">작년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">12</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">월 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">18</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일에 일본은행이 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">보완 조치</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">를 발표한 이후 헤지 펀드들이 전개했던
엔화 매수 전략은 당분간 봉쇄될 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">정책 발표 후의 반응으로서는 간과할 수
없는 포인트가 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">개 있었다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">첫째</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일본정부의 반응이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이번의 마이너스 금리 발동에 대해 아소
타로 재무상과 스가 요시히데 관방장관이 함께 환영할 의향을 표명했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">시장에서는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">정부는 엔화약세를 원하지 않는다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">라는 견해가 뿌리깊었으나 반드시 실태에
맞지 않았음이 분명해졌을 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">유가하락의 플러스 효과도 있어 엔화약세
디메리트론은 정부 내에서 대폭 후퇴한 공산이 크다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">거꾸로 엔화강세를 방치하면 주가도 치명적인
수준까지 하락할 것이라는 위기감은 높아졌을 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">둘째</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">해외시장의 반응이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">금리인하라고 하면 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">근린 궁핍화</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">” “</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">통화약세 전쟁</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이라는 상투적인 비관론이 나오는데 마이너스
금리 발표 당일에 중국주식과 미국주식이 함께 대폭 상승했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">또 외환시장에서는 중국인민은행이 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔화약세 정책에 대항할지 하지 않을지</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">가 주목됐으나 위안 시장 기준치는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">월 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일 이후에도 거의 보합 권내에 설정돼 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">당국이 시장 안정을 최우선으로 생각하고
있는 상황이 확인된 것도 안심 재료이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">금리차와 수급에 입각한 엔화약세 추세에
회귀</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">정부와 일본은행의 정책 대응은 앞으로 어떻게
될까</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">? </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일본은행은 이번에 스위스</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">(-0.75%), </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">스웨덴</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">(-1.1%), </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">덴마크</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">(-0.65%) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">등 유럽 지역의 중앙은행이 대폭 마이너스
금리를 설정하고 있는 사실을 일부러 성명문에 기술함으로써 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">추가 금리인하의 여지는 크다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">고 과시하고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">다시 </span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">=115</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔을 밑도는 엔화강세 추세가 돼 일본은행 물가 시나리오에 차질이 생길 경우에는 기동적으로 금리인하를
내세울 것</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">시장도 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">구로다 풋</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">을 의식하지 않을 수 없을 것으로 예상된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">거꾸로 엔화약세 방향은 당분간 방치될 공산이
크다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">구로다 총재 자신이 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">더 이상의 엔화약세는 없을 것 같다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">라고 발언한 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2015</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">6</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">월 시점의 엔화약세 수준까지 실효 베이스로는
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">10% </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이상 여유가 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">.</span><span style="background-color: yellow;"> </span></span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">=130</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔까지 엔화약세는 문제없이 방치될 것</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일본은행은 마이너스 금리 도입으로 인해
엔화약세를 용납하면서 인플레율을 밀어올리는 자세를 명시했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">회의적인 시장의 견해와 달리 이번의 조치는
강력한 금리인하 효과를 발휘해 국내 투자가의 외화 시프트를 촉구하는 한편 해외 투기 세력의 엔화매수를 봉쇄할 공산이 크다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">작년 말부터 투기적 엔화매수에 밀려 하락한
달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔 환율은 이번의 쇼크요법으로 인해 금리차와 수급이라는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">대 펀더멘털스에 입각한 중장기 상승</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔화약세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">추세에 복귀했을 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일 오전 시점에서 달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">120</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔을 밑도는 수준까지 엔화강세 방향으로
되밀렸으나 이것은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일본은행의 마이너스 금리 정책에 대한 시장의 회의적인 시각</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이라고 하기보다 미국의 추가 금리인상에
대한 기대감이 지나치게 하락한 영향이 크다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">선물시장은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">연내에 한 번도 금리인상을 못할 가능성</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">을 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">50%</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">까지 반영시킨 상황이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">연초부터 금융시장을 습격한 위안화약세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">유가약세라는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">가지 쇼크는 이미 일순했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">미국의 경기견조만 확인돼 추가 금리인상 시나리오가 높아지면</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">미일 금리차 확대가 가속해 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">=125</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔이 시야에 들어올 것</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">연말까지 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">130</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔에 도달할 것이라는 필자의 시나리오도
일본은행의 마이너스 금리정책에 의해 강화됐다고 생각한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">로이터 외환 포럼</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "batang" , serif;"><a href="http://jp.reuters.com/article/column-forexforum-yunosukeikeda-idJPKCN0VC0DO"><span style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">http://jp.reuters.com/article/column-forexforum-yunosukeikeda-idJPKCN0VC0DO</span></a></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-7791418984483026152015-08-06T21:34:00.004+09:002015-08-06T21:35:37.379+09:00鶏龍山(ケリョンサン/845m/忠清南道・大田市)<div style="background: white; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">鶏龍山は</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%BF%A0%E6%B8%85%E5%8D%97%E9%81%93"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">忠清南道</span></span></a><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%85%AC%E5%B7%9E%E5%B8%82"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">公州市</span></span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%B6%8F%E9%BE%8D%E5%B8%82"><span lang="EN-US">鶏龍市</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%AB%96%E5%B1%B1%E5%B8%82"><span lang="EN-US">論山市</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">、そして</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%A4%A7%E7%94%B0%E5%BA%83%E5%9F%9F%E5%B8%82"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">大田市</span></span></a><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%84%92%E5%9F%8E%E5%8C%BA"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">儒城区</span></span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">にまたがる山である。<span lang="EN-US">1968</span>年<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月<span lang="EN-US">31</span>日に国立公園に指定された。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">忠清地域において鶏龍山は代表的な山ではあるが、最高峰の天皇峰(チョヌァンボン)は標高<span lang="EN-US">845m</span>、鶏龍山の全体面積は<span lang="EN-US">60.98</span>㎢であり、標高や面積では最高最大ではない。天皇峰、連天峰(ヨンチョンボン)、三仏峰(サンブルボン)を結ぶ稜線が、鶏のトサカをかぶった龍に似ているところから鶏龍山と名付けられた。鶏龍山の麓には、東鶴寺(トンハクサ)や甲寺(カプサ)、新元寺(シヌォンサ)などの有名な仏寺があり、また国語の教科書に紹介されている男妹塔(ナンメタッ)がある。鶏龍山南方地域の新都案(シンドアン)は、</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%9D%8E%E6%B0%8F%E6%9C%9D%E9%AE%AE"><span lang="EN-US">朝鮮王朝</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">の建国直前に都の候補地として選ばれた。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">鶏龍山は</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%99%BE%E6%B8%88"><span lang="EN-US">百済</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">時代にも重要な山として中国の文献に「ケサン」又は「ケラムサン」という記録が確認されているが、</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%96%B0%E7%BE%85"><span lang="EN-US">新羅</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">では鶏龍山を「ケラムサン」と呼んでいたことから、鶏龍山が「ケサン」「ケラムサン」であったと推定される。統一新羅時代には吐含山(トハムサン)、智異山(チリサン)、太白山(テベクサン)、八公山(パルゴンサン)とともに五岳の一つとして重要視されていた。新羅では国家の祭祀を大祀、中祀、小祀に分けていたが、鶏龍山で執り行われた祭祀は中祀に該当した。この信仰はその後、<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%AB%98%E9%BA%97"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">高麗</span></span></a></span>から李氏朝鮮時代にかけて伝わり、新元寺の中嶽壇(チュンアクタン)で執り行われていた。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;">9</span><span style="color: #333333;">世紀半ばごろに築かれた鶏龍山の鶏龍山城は、連天峰、観音峰(クァヌンボン)、サルゲ峰尾根を経て、西側で二つの沢が合流する地点まで尾根沿いに続き、その長さは<span lang="EN-US">3.5km</span>に達する。鶏龍山の西側に位置することから<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%BE%8C%E7%99%BE%E6%B8%88"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">後百済</span></span></a></span>が初めて築城したものと推定される。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">鶏龍山は、</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%A4%AA%E7%99%BD%E5%B1%B1%E8%84%88"><span lang="EN-US">太白山脈</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">から車嶺(チャリョン)山脈が南西方向に分かれたところで、<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%8C%A6%E6%B1%9F_(%E9%9F%93%E5%9B%BD)"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">錦江</span></span></a></span>による侵食を免れた残丘性山地である。山容は東へ<span lang="EN-US">U</span>字型に開いた侵食盆地となっている。主なピークは次の通り。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="color: #333333;">天皇峰:<span lang="EN-US">845m</span>。鶏龍山の最高峰。立入禁止区域。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="color: #333333;">サルゲ峰:<span lang="EN-US">828m</span>。踏臼の胴部につけた止め木(サルゲ)に似ているところから名付けられた。立入禁止区域。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">観音峰:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">816m</span><span style="font-size: large;">。天皇峰、サルゲ峰とともに鶏龍山の主峰。観音峰ののどかな雲景は、後述する鶏龍</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">8</span><span style="font-size: large;">景の一つであり、公州</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">10</span><span style="font-size: large;">景</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[1]</span></span><span style="font-size: large;">の一つに数えられる。サルゲ尾根の紅葉と、北西尾根の</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%AF%E3%83%AD%E3%83%95%E3%83%8D%E3%83%84%E3%83%84%E3%82%B8"><span lang="EN-US">クロフネツツジ</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333; font-size: large;">が美しい。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="color: #333333;">三仏峰:<span lang="EN-US">775.1m</span>。三人の仏様が座っているように見えるところから名付けられた。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="color: #333333;">連天峰:<span lang="EN-US">739m</span>。主尾根が文筆峰(ムンピルボン)を経て連天峰へと至る。甲寺渓谷と新元寺渓谷の間にある。天皇峰、サルゲ峰、文筆峰、三仏峰の展望が良い。西方下には上月面</span>(サンウォルミョン)と鶏龍池(ケリョンジ)、敬天池(キョンチョンジ)が見え、壮観な夕焼けは後述する鶏龍<span lang="EN-US">8</span>景の一つに数えられる。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">鶏龍山にある主な滝として隠仙瀑布と龍門瀑布があるが、このうち隠仙瀑布は、昔、仙人たちが隠れて遊んだほど美しいところから名付けられた。滝の落差による生じる雲霧は、後述する鶏龍<span lang="EN-US">8</span>景の一つに数えられる。この滝は、<span lang="EN-US">20cm</span>程度の厚さで幾重にも重なった紅色長石質花崗岩の板状斜節理が外部へ落ちたことにより作られた。高さ<span lang="EN-US">46m</span>、幅<span lang="EN-US">10m</span>、傾斜約<span lang="EN-US">60</span>度の滝で、地形的な条件は備えているが、山地の頂上周辺に位置し、滝を形成できるほどの流水量の維持が困難なため、渇水期には落水がほとんど現れない。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">鶏龍<span lang="EN-US">8</span>景<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;">1.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-stretch: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="color: #333333;">天皇峰から眺めるご来光<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;">2.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-stretch: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="color: #333333;">三仏峰を白く覆った雪景色<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;">3.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-stretch: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="color: #333333;">連天峰の落日<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;">4.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-stretch: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="color: #333333;">観音峰を包むのどかな浮雲<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;">5.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-stretch: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="color: #333333;">盛夏の東鶴寺渓谷の森<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;">6.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-stretch: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="color: #333333;">甲寺渓谷を真っ赤に彩る秋の紅葉<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;">7.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-stretch: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="color: #333333;">隠仙瀑布の白い雲霧<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;">8.<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-stretch: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="color: #333333;">男妹塔に半分かかった月の姿<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">鶏龍山は主に落葉広葉樹林で覆われている。標高<span lang="EN-US">200</span>~<span lang="EN-US">400m</span>の山麓にはマツ、ケヤキ、ナラ、ミズキなどがあり、標高<span lang="EN-US">400</span>~<span lang="EN-US">650m</span>の中腹にはオノオレカンバ、サワシバ、アカシデ、カエデ、イタヤカエデ、アベマキが、<span lang="EN-US">650m</span>以上の頂上付近にはモンゴリナラ、トネリコ、クロフネツツジが多い。中腹以上の植生は比較的よく保存されている。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;">[1]</span><span style="color: #333333;">公州<span lang="EN-US">10</span>景 公州文化院、公州芸総、郷土史学者、ジャーナリスト、写真家などで構成された公州<span lang="EN-US">10</span>景選定委員会が公州<span lang="EN-US">10</span>景候補地<span lang="EN-US">15</span>か所を選定し、それを対象に実施したアンケートをもとに最終選定された。<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;"><<span lang="EN-US">2011</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月<span lang="EN-US">18</span>日に撮影した動画><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/fiDieSFOt2w/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/fiDieSFOt2w?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "MS Pゴシック"; mso-bidi-font-family: "MS Pゴシック"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><登山地図></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'MS Pゴシック';"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">(動画の</span><span style="color: red;">登り=赤</span><span style="color: #333333;"> </span><span style="color: blue;">下り=青</span><span style="color: #333333;">)</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-85273571105261669782015-08-05T17:36:00.003+09:002015-11-10T19:41:23.082+09:00아베 내각 지지율 급락은 “엔화약세의 원인”이 돼<div style="background: white; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">각 언론이 실시한 여론조사에서 아베 내각
지지율이 하락하고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">예를 들어 지난 주말에 마이니치 신문과 아사히 신문이 실시한
여론조사에서는 지지율이 각각 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">35%, 37%</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">로</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"> 2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">차 아베 내각 출범 후 최저수준까지 떨어졌다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이번에는 내각 지지율 하락과 달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔 환율의 관계에 대해 생각해 보고자 한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">먼저 역대 내각 지지율을 바라보면 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2000</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">년에 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">차 모리 내각이 출범한 이후 모두 출범
직후를 정점으로 그 후 하락세로 추이하는 경향이 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. 2001</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">년에 출범해 장기정권을 만들어낸 고이즈미
내각조차 출범 후 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">년 이상 지나니 지지율이 단속적으로 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">50% </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">안팎에 하락했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일반적으로 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">정권존속의 위험수역</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이라고 하는 것은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">지지율 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">20%</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">대 이하</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이며 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2006</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">년에 출범한 후 단명으로 끝난 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">차 아베 내각도 지지율이 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2007</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">년에 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">20%</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">대에 하락한 후 총사직에 몰렸다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">현재 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">3</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">차 아베 내각에 대한 지지율은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">경계구역</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">까지 하락했으나 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">정권존속의 위기</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">라고까지 할 정도의 상황이 아니다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔 환율에 미치는 영향을 논의하기에는 아직
시기상조라고 할 수 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">다만 정국의 행방에 대한 예측은 금물이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. 3</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">차 아베 내각 지지율이 앞으로도 계속 떨어질
경우에는 외환시장도 관심을 가질 수밖에 없을 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">과거에 역대 내각 지지율과 달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔 환율 사이에 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">정해진 규칙</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">과 같은 관계는 없었으나 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">차 아베 내각 출범 후에 가속화된 엔화약세
움직임에 대해서는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">대담한 금융완화로 인한 디플레 극복</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">을 공약으로 내걸어 국정선거에 계속 압승하는
정권의 존재가 영향을 미쳤음에 틀림없기 때문이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">또 일반론을 말하면 주식시장에서는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">정국의 혼미</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">=</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">주가의 누름돌</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">로 해석될 경우가 많은 한편 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">정국의 안정</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">=</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">주가의 지지</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">로 간주될 경우가 많다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">근년의 외환시장에서는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">리스크 온의 엔화약세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">” “</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">리스크 오프의 엔화강세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">라는 연상방식이 완전히 시민권을 얻은 인상이
있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">아베 </span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">내각 지지율이 앞으로 한층 더 하락할 경우</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">그 정도에 따라</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔화강세 압력이 증가할 가능성</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이 있을 것 같다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">단</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">아베 총리가 최근의 지지율 하락에 신경을 쓰지 않을 리가 없다</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">올 가을의 자민당 총재 선거는 무풍선거로
재선되더라도 내년 여름에는 참의원 선거를 앞두고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. 3</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">차 아베 내각에 대한 지지율이 하락하고
있는 원인에 대해서는 여러 설이 있는데</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">국내외의 시장 관계자 사이에서는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">안보 최우선</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">의 정책 운영에 주력한 나머지 지난 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">3</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">번의 국정선거에서 매우 높은 지지를 얻은
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">경제 최우선</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">의 간판이 퇴색했기 때문이 아닌가라는 의견이
많다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">작년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">12</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">월의 중의원 선거에서 압도적인 민의를 얻은
자민당의 선거용 슬로건이 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">경기회복</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이 길밖에 없다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">였음에 입각하면 앞으로 외환시장에 미칠
영향을 고려할 때 주목해야 할 것은 내년 여름의 참의원 선거를 주시하면서 운영될 아베 내각의 경제정책 지도일 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">아베노믹스</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">=</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">세 개의 화살</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이 지금까지 가동한 상황을 바라보면 먼저</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"> “</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">기동적인 재정정책</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">에 대해서는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">차 아베 내각 출범 직후만은 총액 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">13</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">조엔을 넘은 초대형 재정출동이 목격됐다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">하지만 현재는 관대한 재정으로 인한 경기대책
발동여지는 좁아지고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일부 농림족 의원들 사이에서는 환대평양
경제동반자 협정</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">(TPP) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">대책으로 최소한 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">조엔의 대책을 요구하는 소리가 올라 있는
모양인데 일반정부의 채무잔고가 명목 국내총생산의 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2.5</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">배에 이르고 있는 일본의 상황에 입각하면
재정으로 인한 경제대책에는 저절로 한계가 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. TPP </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">대책이 늘어날 경우에는 다른 것이 삼감되며
총액예산의 팽창은 억제될 것 같다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">한편 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">민간투자를 환기시키는 성장전략</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">에 대해서는 아베노믹스 개시 직후만은 대담한
규제완화의 추진이 주식시장에서 기대됐으나 지금까지 제시된 각종 규제완화책에 대해서는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">정부의 자기평가</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">와 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">시장의 객관평가</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">에 꽤 온도차가 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">수적으로는 많이 있어 보이나 이른바 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">암반 규제</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">가 단숨에 분쇄돼 성장률 대폭상승의 기폭제가
될 것이라는 기대가 고조되지는 않고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">내년 여름의 참의원 선거에 임하는 여당 입장에서 생각하면</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">대담한 규제완화를 심하게 진행하면 기득권으로 보호 받았던 각종 업계 등에서 조직표를 잃을 리스크</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">를 떠안게 된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">눈앞의 선거전에서 불리하게 될지도 모르는
규제완화가 참의원 선거 눈앞의 시기에 단숨에 진행될 가능성은 적어 보인다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이러한 상황 하에서 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">차 아베 내각의 간판 정책인 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">디플레에서의 탈출</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">을 응시한 경제정책 운영의 비중은 지금까지와
마찬가지로 기동적으로 운용하기 쉬운 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="background-color: yellow; color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">금융정책에 짓누르는 상황이 계속될 것</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">앞으로도 아베 내각 지지율이 계속 하락할
경우 예를 들어 구로다 일본은행 총재가 국회에 소환돼 답변을 하는 빈도가 한층 더 증가하거나 구로다 총재와 아베 총리의 오찬 회동이 관저에서 개최되는
일이 늘어날 지도 모른다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">적어도 일부 여당 의원 사이에서는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">나가타초</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">永田町</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">=</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">국회</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">발 미쓰코시마에</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">三越前</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">=</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일본은행</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">행</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">” </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">금융완화 요청이 강해지기 쉬울 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"><1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">=125</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔을 넘는 공중전이 가을 이후에 재래</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">?><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">물론 그런 기대에 응할지 어떨지는 일본은행이
독자적으로 판단해 결정하는 일이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">다만 구로다 총재를 포함한 집행부가 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2016</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">년도 전반 쯤에 달성 가능하다고 주장하고
있는 물가목표 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2%</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">에 대해 민간 이코노미스트 사이에서는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">아마 무리</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">라는 비평이 많다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">앞으로 실제로 목표달성이 어려운 상황이
밝혀지기 시작하면 일본은행도 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">어떠한 대응</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">을 강요당할 것 같다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">집행부가 물가목표 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2%</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">의 조기달성이 무리한 수법이었음을 솔직히
인정하고 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">장기의 노력목표</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">” </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">등의 자리매김으로 바꾸지 않는 한 어떠한
정책변경을 공표하지 않으면 지금까지 시장에 말해온 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">필요하면 주저없이 금융정책을 조정하겠다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">” </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">등의 설명이 허공에 뜨게 된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">어디까지나 사견이지만 객관적으로 보고 쉽지
않은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="background-color: yellow; color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">높은 물가목표를 가능한 한
조기에 달성하기 위해서는</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"> 그 선악은 별문제</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">로</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"> 하고</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔화약세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "ms ゴシック";">・</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">주가상승</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "ms ゴシック";">・</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">채권상승이라는 삼중주로 시장에서 전면협력을 받아야</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"> 할 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">지난달 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">10</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일의 국회답변에서 구로다 총재가 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">앞으로 더욱 실질실효 환율이 엔화약세 방향으로
쏠리는 일은 생각하기 어렵다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">” </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">등의 발언을 해 뜻밖의 엔화강세 쇼크를 환기한 이후 시장의 일부에서는
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">더 이상의 엔화약세는 일본은행이 원하지 않기 때문에 추가완화 가능성은 사라졌다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">라는 시각이 소용돌이치고 있는 모양인데
과연 정말로 그럴까</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">?<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">그 다음주 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">16</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일의 답변에서 구로다 총재는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">지난번의 발언은 명목환율의 수준과 장래의
평가를 말한 것이 아니다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">라며 시장해석의 진화를 나선데다가 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">19</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일의 정례회견에서는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">환율은 물가에 영향을 미치기 때문에 주시하나
특정한 수준과 속도를 고려해 정책을 운영한다는 것은 전혀 없다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">라고 언명했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">일련의 일본은행 총재발언의 진가는 물가목표
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">2% </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">조기달성이 의심스러워지기 시작한 경우의 금융정책 운용으로 시험하게 될 국면이 머지않아 찾아올 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"> 참고로 당사에서는 </span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">올 가을 이후의 금융정책 결정회의에서 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">초과준비 금리의 소폭인하</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">와 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">매입국채의
평균연한 장기화</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">등을 조합한 금융정책 조정이 실시될 것</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">으로 보고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. “</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">안보 최우선</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">의 국회운영에 매진하고 있는 </span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">아베 총리도 아마 그 무렵에는 국민에게 비교적 호평을 받았던 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">경제 최우선</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">의 자세를 전면에 내세우는</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"> 것이 아닌가 생각된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"> 우리가 메인 시나리오로 생각하는 일본은행의
추가완화가 올 가을 이후에 실시될 경우 연내에도 제로 금리 해제에 나설 것 같은 미 금융정책과의 방향성 차이가 한층 더 명백해질 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. </span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔 환율은 다시 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">=125</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">엔을 넘는 공중전으로 향할 것</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">으로 본다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">로이터 외환 포럼</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">></span></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://jp.reuters.com/article/2015/07/21/column-forexforum-daisakuueno-idJPKCN0PV0CH20150721"><span style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif;">http://jp.reuters.com/article/2015/07/21/column-forexforum-daisakuueno-idJPKCN0PV0CH20150721</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "gulim" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-81820004088517849962015-07-23T10:54:00.003+09:002015-07-23T11:07:42.297+09:00伽耶山(カヤサン/1,433m/慶尚北道・慶尚南道)<div style="background: white; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;">伽耶山は、<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%85%B6%E5%B0%9A%E5%8D%97%E9%81%93"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">慶尚南道</span></span></a><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%99%9C%E5%B7%9D%E9%83%A1"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">陜川郡</span></span></a></span>伽倻面(カヤミョン)と、<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%85%B6%E5%B0%9A%E5%8C%97%E9%81%93"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">慶尚北道</span></span></a><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%98%9F%E5%B7%9E%E9%83%A1"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">星州郡</span></span></a></span>の伽泉面(カチョンミョン)、修倫面(スリュンミョン)にまたがる山である。主峰の上王峰(サンワンボン<span lang="EN-US"> 1,430m</span>)、最高峰の七仏峰(チルブルボン<span lang="EN-US"> 1,433m</span>)、南山(ナムサン<span lang="EN-US"> 1,113m</span>)、梅花山(メファサン<span lang="EN-US"> 954m</span>)など、<span lang="EN-US">1,000m</span>級の峰々が連なっており、その中央に、韓国三大寺院の一つに数えられる<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%B5%B7%E5%8D%B0%E5%AF%BA_(%E9%99%9C%E5%B7%9D%E9%83%A1)"><span lang="EN-US">海印寺</span></a></span>とそれに付属する庵がある。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">伽耶山一帯から海印寺のある緇仁里(チイルリ)に集まる水は、急傾斜の紅流洞渓谷(ホンニュドンゲゴッ)を成す。その後、南東方向へ流れ下り、伽倻面の黄山里(ファンサルリ)で、<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%B4%9B%E6%9D%B1%E6%B1%9F"><span lang="EN-US">洛東江</span></a></span>の小支流である伽耶川(カヤチョン)となる。伽耶山を成す山脈を見ると、<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%A4%AA%E7%99%BD%E5%B1%B1%E8%84%88"><span lang="EN-US">太白山脈</span></a></span>から分かれた<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B0%8F%E7%99%BD%E5%B1%B1%E8%84%88"><span lang="EN-US">小白山脈</span></a></span>が<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://climbeverymt.blogspot.jp/2015/01/1614m.html"><span lang="EN-US">徳裕山</span></a></span>へ至り、本脈が南方の智異山(チリサン)へ向かう途中で一つの支脈が東方に伸び、大徳山(テドクサン<span lang="EN-US"> 1,290m</span>)、修道山(スドサン<span lang="EN-US"> 1,316m</span>)、丹芝峰(タンジボン<span lang="EN-US"> 1,327m</span>)を経て伽耶山へ至り、大きな山容を見せる。東側と南側は、洛東江本流と黄江(ファンガン)を見下ろす。上王峰からは、西に徳裕山を、南に智異山を遠望できる。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">伽耶山一帯の地質は花崗片麻岩と花崗岩で形成されており、海印寺と<span class="worddic"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">新村落(シンチョルラッ)のある</span></span>緇仁里沢と紅流洞渓谷は花崗岩侵食谷である。<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://books.google.co.jp/books?id=WlviAAAAMAAJ&q=%E6%9D%8E%E9%87%8D%E7%85%A5&dq=%E6%9D%8E%E9%87%8D%E7%85%A5&hl=ja&sa=X&ved=0CCAQ6AEwAGoVChMI-bWjlJbmxgIVA56UCh3f0wVr"><span lang="EN-US">択里志</span></a></span>では、韓国の山を岩山と土山に区分しつつ、次のように伽耶山を礼賛する部分が見られる。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">「慶尚道には石火星(ソックァソン)がない。ただ一つ、陜川の伽耶山のみ、尖った岩が連なって火花のようであり、空中に極めて高くそびえ、秀でている。沢の取り付きに紅流洞と<span class="worddic"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">武陵</span>橋がある。飛ぶような湧き水と盤石が数十里にわたって伸びている。」と記し、花崗岩で形成された岩山の峰々と沢、泉石を礼賛している。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">伽耶山の気候は大陸性気候の特色を示し、気温の年較差及び日較差が非常に大きい。また、海印寺一帯は標高が高いため、冬は陜川郡の1月平均平地気温の氷点下<span lang="EN-US">1.1℃</span>より<span lang="EN-US">5℃</span>以上低い。降水量は地形性降雨により年間降水量が<span lang="EN-US">1,100mm</span>を超え、夏季に集中することが多い。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">紅流洞渓谷や海印寺一帯など、標高<span lang="EN-US">1,000m</span>までは松や樅などを主として約<span lang="EN-US">300</span>種余りの樹木がこんもり生い茂っており、山頂が近づくに連れ多様な草本植物が現れる。山頂付近のヒロハヘビノボラズ、ヒロハハシドイ、チョウセンハシドイ、イブキジャコウソウの群落は特記に値する。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">生息動物は、ミミズク、チョウセンウグイス、キジ、ヤマカササギなど<span lang="EN-US">100</span>種余りの鳥類と、イノシシ、タヌキ、ノウサギなどの哺乳類が見られる。このほか、チョウセンスズガエルなど珍しくて貴重な動物も生息している。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">伽耶山は昔から<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%9C%9D%E9%AE%AE%E5%85%AB%E6%99%AF"><span lang="EN-US">朝鮮八景</span></a></span>や<span lang="EN-US">12</span>大名山の一つに数えられてきた。<span lang="EN-US">1966</span>年には伽耶山と海印寺一円が史蹟・名勝地第<span lang="EN-US">5</span>号に指定され、<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972%E5%B9%B4" title="1972年"><span style="color: black; text-decoration: none;">1972</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; text-decoration: none;"><span lang="EN-US">年</span></span></a></span><span lang="EN-US">10</span>月には伽耶山のある陜川郡伽倻面を中心に星州郡と<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B1%85%E6%98%8C%E9%83%A1"><span lang="EN-US">居昌郡</span></a></span>の一部を含めた総面積<span lang="EN-US">57.8</span>㎢が伽耶山国立公園に指定されている。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">伽耶山の峰々と稜線は、南東の紅流洞渓谷方面以外は全て急斜面を形成している。そのため、西に<span class="worddic"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">馬嶺(マリョン)を</span></span>越えて居昌へと至る小道もあるが、昔から主要交通路は紅流洞渓谷沿いに南東方向へ下り、陜川郡冶爐面(ヤロミョン)を経由して形成された。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">伽耶山の主要観光資源は、紅流洞をはじめとした渓谷と海印寺一帯、そして伽耶山の峰々と稜線の自然景観に分けられる。自然景観と文化的・歴史的景観が優れた調和を見せている。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">観光客向けの施設は緇仁里<span class="worddic"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">新村落に集中している。新村落集団施設地には、旅館などの宿泊施設や食堂、その他娯楽施設、記念品を販売する売店が密集しており、山菜料理やキノコ料理が美味である。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="worddic"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">郵便局(国際電話取扱)、農業協同組合(外国為替取扱)、警察署、駐車場(<span lang="EN-US">7,000</span>㎡)など、公共施設も整っている。交通は、ソウル・釜山・大邱・馬山・晋州・</span></span>陜川間で定期路線バスが運行されており、特に<span class="worddic"><span lang="EN-US" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">88</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">オリンピック高速道路の開通以降、大邱からの所要時間は<span lang="EN-US">1</span>時間に短縮、大邱市民の日帰り休養地となった。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-size: large;">1972</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-size: large;">年に建設された展望台があり、伽耶山頂上と海印寺を一目に見渡せる。ソウルからは秋風嶺(チュプンニョン)を経由し</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%87%91%E6%B3%89%E5%B8%82"><span lang="EN-US" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><span lang="EN-US">金泉市</span></span></a></span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-size: large;">甑山面(チュンサンミョン)、</span><span style="font-size: large;">星州郡</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-size: large;">修倫面</span><span style="font-size: large;">紅流洞へと至る道があるが、この道は清らかな渓谷沿いにあ</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-size: large;">り、武屹九曲</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[1]</span></span><span style="font-size: large;">で有名な絶景が広がっている。途中、青岩寺(チョンアムサ)や修道庵(スドアム)に立ち寄ることもできる上に、</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-size: large;">修倫面の</span><span style="font-size: large;">檜淵書院(フェヨンソウォン)一帯の絶景も見どころである。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: large;"> 登山コースは、門前集落の旅館村から始まり、<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">海印寺~龍塔禅院~山頂を往復するコース(片道約<span lang="EN-US">6km</span>)の他、海印寺~磨崖仏立像~山頂へ至るコースもある。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">上王峰のピークに立つと、頭里峰(トゥリボン)、丹芝峰、修道山、大徳山を経て徳裕山へと至る西側の大稜線が壮快だ。<span class="worddic"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">北東方向</span></span>は<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%98%9F%E5%B7%9E%E9%83%A1"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span lang="EN-US">星州郡</span></span></a></span>を見下ろすことができ、白蓮庵(ペンニョナム)や加山(カサン<span lang="EN-US"> 692m</span>)方面へ伸びている南北稜線と南山第一峰岩尾根の奇岩絶壁が絶景を成す。なお、このピークの近くには、日照りでも水の枯れない<span class="worddic"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">牛鼻井(ウビジョン)がある。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">伽倻面及び近隣の冶爐面は古くから白土と磁器の産地として知られており、伽倻面の高麗陶器会社等の陶磁器は陜川郡の主要工業製品となっている。また、同じく近隣の<span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%AB%98%E9%9C%8A%E9%83%A1"><span lang="EN-US">高靈郡</span></a></span>方面の山麓にも高嶺土鉱山が多い。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">伽耶山のある陜川郡には、涵碧樓(ハンビョンヌ)・<span class="worddic"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">烟湖寺(ヨノサ)・黃渓瀑</span>布(フェンゲポッポ)など、多くの古蹟観光地がある。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">[1]</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">武屹九曲(ムフルググッ) 朝鮮時代の儒者寒岡(ハンガン)が七言句節の詩を作って歌った曲。<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><span style="font-size: large;"><<span lang="EN-US">2011</span>年<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月<span lang="EN-US">20</span>日に撮影した動画><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/5_1rUt3Au6I/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5_1rUt3Au6I?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></span></div>
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<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: 'MS Pゴシック';"><span style="font-size: large;"><登山地図></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'MS Pゴシック'; font-size: large;">(動画の<span style="color: red;">登り=赤</span> <span style="color: blue;">下り=青</span>)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-82654081245010382832015-07-19T11:15:00.002+09:002015-07-19T11:17:15.531+09:00그리스와 중국 불안후퇴로 1달러=130엔을 향해 재시동<div style="background: white; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 환율은 지난 몇 년간 그 해 종반부터
이듬해 초반에 걸쳐 달러강세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔화약세 방향으로 크게 움직이는 전개를 보이는데</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">올해도 서서히 같은 밑바탕이 돼 있는 것
같다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">6</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">16</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일에 올린 이 칼럼에서도 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">=130</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔으로 향할 전개가 메인 시나리오</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">라고 적은 듯이 필자는 전부터 연내의 달러강세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔하약세 추세를 예상했는데</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, “</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그렇게 되지 않는다면 어떤 경우냐</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">라는 질문도 자주 받는다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이에 대해서는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그리스 문제가 유럽 주변국에 번져 채무위기가
재연된 경우</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">와 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">중국에서 주가와 지가가 마구 급락해 심각한
거품 풍괴가 일어난 경우</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">를 리스크 시나리오로 들었다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. 6</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 중순 이후 공교롭게도 그리스 위기의
고조와 중국 주가의 급격한 변동이 거의 동시에 일어나</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">경우에 따라 어쩔 수 없이 시나리오를 큰
폭으로 변경하게 될 가능성도 있었으나</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">어느 쪽의 혼란도 안정을 되찾았다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">다음의 그리스 문제</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">는 아직 장래의 이야기</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">7</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">12</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일부터 이튿날까지 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">17</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">시간에 걸쳐 열린 유로권 정상회담에서는
그리스 지원을 계속할 것으로 만장일치로 합의됐다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">재정개혁의 일부 법제화를 조건으로 그리스에
대해 제</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">3</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">차 지원을 하기로 하며 유럽 안정 메카니즘</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(ESM) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">등이 앞으로 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">3</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년에 걸쳐 최대 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">860</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">억유로 정도를 지원한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">최종적으로는 그리스 측이 전면양보한 형식이
되며 치프라스 정권의 지반침하는 피할 수 없을 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. 15</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일이 기한이었던 개혁안의 법제화는 야당의
찬성도 있어 가결됐으나 정권의 구심력 저하가 앞으로 해산 총선거를 포함해 정치적 혼란으로 이어질 가능성은 남는다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">다만</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">앞으로</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">제</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">3</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">차 금융지원이 실시될</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">3</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년간 사이에 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그리스가 재정개혁을 진행시키는 것</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">과 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">유로권의 재정정책 통일을 논의 테이블에
올리는 것</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이 더 중요할 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그리스가 자신의 개혁을 추진하는 것은 물론
중요하지만 유로권으로서의 재정구조 개혁에도 착수할 수 있을지는 더욱 중요하다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">원래 유로권에서는 유럽중앙은행</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(ECB)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이 역내의 금융정책을 통일적으로 실시하기
때문에 그 정책은 평균적인 것이 되는 경우가 많다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그러자 경기가 좋은 나라에는 완화적이니
경기는 보다 가속화되며</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">경기가 나쁜 나라에는 긴축적이니 경기는 보다 감속된다는 양극화
경향을 보인다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">재정정책이 통일돼 있으면 경기가 좋은 나라에서 납부된 세금을
나쁜 지역에 분배함으로써 경기의 평준화를 꾀할 수 있으나</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">유로권에서는 재정정책이 통일돼 있지 않다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이번의 지원책이 기능하고 있는 사이에 이
재정문제를 테이블에 올릴 것은 매우 중요하며</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">현상태 대로라면 또다시 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">다음의 그리스 문제</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가 일어날 가능성이 높다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">다만 그것은 적어도 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2015</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년은 아닐 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">연내의 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그리스 문제</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">는 조만간 수습하게
될 것</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">으로 보인다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">중국정부는 주가급락을 방치할 수 없다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">중국 주식시장의 급격한 변동도 세계 금융시장에
찬물을 끼얹었다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">중국 주식시장은 약 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">80%</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가 개인투자가이며 외국인 투자가와 기관
투자가들은 거의 내쫓겨 있는 상태이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">신흥기업이 상장하는 창업판의 주가 수익률</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(PER)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이 한때 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">100</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">배를 넘는 수준까지 매수되는 등 분명히
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">아마추어에 의한 거품 시세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 양상을 보이고 있었다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">즉 중국주식의 하락은 어느 정도 예상돼
있었다고 할 수 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그런데도 이번의 급격한 변동이 해외 금융시장에 영향을 미친 것은
정부가 잇따라 주가 지원책을 발표했음에도 불구하고 주가하락이 좀처럼 멈추지 않은 것에 대한 공포감이 있었던 것으로 생각된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그러나 중국정부는 주가하락이 멈출 때까지
대책을 계속할 것 같다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일대일로</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">신 실크로드</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">구상을 비롯해 정부의 의향 하나로 얼마든지
수요창출이 가능한 시스템인 것과</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">약 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">50</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">개국을 모여 조인식을 가진 아시아 인프라
투자은행</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(AIIB)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">을 주도한 입장도 있을 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">주가와 경기의 뒷받침에 실패하면 민중의
화살이 공산당 정권에 향할 가능성도 있는 가운데 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="background-color: yellow; color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">주가대책은 정부에 있어서 매우 중요하며 하락이 멈출 때까지 대책을 계속 강구할 것</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이고 그 결과로 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="background-color: yellow; color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조만간 시장은 안정을 되찾을 것</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">으로 보인다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 상승의 엔진은 건재</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이렇게 달러강세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔화약세를 저해할 가능성이 있었던 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">개의 혼란 싹이 제거되면 다음에 시장이
주목하는 것은 미 연방준비이사회</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(FRB)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에 의한 금리인상이 될 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">옐런 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">FRB </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의장이 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">15</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일 의회증언에서도 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">연내에 금리인상을 개시하는 것이 적절하다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">라고 발언했으며 이제 시장의 주목은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">연내에 있을지 없을지</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가 아니라 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“9</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월인지 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">12</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월인지</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">라는 인상을 받는다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">작년 말부터 올해 전반에 날씨 요인 등으로
감속한 미 경제는 순환적인 회복경향을 나타낼 가능성이 높다고 보고 있으며 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">8</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월에 걸쳐 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">9</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 금리인상 설이 고조될 장면도 있을 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">한편 일본은행은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">15</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일의 금융정책 결정회의에서 정책을 그대로
유지하기로 했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">소비자물가 상승률은 현재 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">0% </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">정도라고 하면서도 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2%</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">라는 물가안정 목표는 유지하고 구로다 총재는
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“2016</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년도 전반 경에 물가상승률이 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2%</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에 도달할 가능성이 높다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">라며 달성시기도 변경이 없다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그러나 전망 책정을 위한 유가</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">두바이</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 전제는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">배럴 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">60</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러를 출발점으로 하고 전망기간의 종반에
걸쳐 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">70</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러 정도로 완만하게 상승할 것</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">으로 보고 있으며 최근의 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">배럴 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">55</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러 대는 출발점에도 못 미친다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">구로다 총재는 유가의 대폭적인 변동으로
사람들의 물가관</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">예상 인플레율</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">도 영향을 받는다면 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">필요에 따라 정책을 조정한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">라고도 발언했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">물가목표 달성기한인 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2016</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">9</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(16</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년도 전반의 끝</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">까지 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년이 채 안 되는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">10</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월의 금융정책 결정회의에서는 전망 보고서가
공표되는데 이 시점에서 소비자물가 상승률이 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">0% </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">정도로 추이하고 있을 경우에는 추가완화
압력이 강화될 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">최근 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">20</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년간에서</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">소비증세를 제외</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) 1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년간의 소비자물가 상승률이 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2% </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이상 변동한 것은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2007</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년의 유가급등과 그 이듬해 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2008</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년의 리먼쇼크 후에 급격히 경기가 악화됐을
때뿐이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이러한 </span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">미국의 금리인상 기대와 일본은행의 추가완화 기대는 달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 환율을 상승시킬 엔진으로 명쾌하게 기능할 것</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">따라서 </span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">올해 종반을 향해 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">=130</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 방향으로 상승압력을 강화하는 전개가 될 것이라는 달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 메인 시나리오를 변경할 필요는 없다</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">고 생각한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">로이터 외환 포럼</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">></span></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://jp.reuters.com/article/jp_forum/idJPKCN0PR06720150717"><span style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">http://jp.reuters.com/article/jp_forum/idJPKCN0PR06720150717</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Gulim",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-66465066003682561122015-04-10T16:52:00.001+09:002015-04-10T16:54:27.453+09:00道峰山(トボンサン/740m/ソウル市・京畿道)<div style="margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">道峰山は</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%BD%E3%82%A6%E3%83%AB%E7%89%B9%E5%88%A5%E5%B8%82"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">ソウル市</span></span></a><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%81%93%E5%B3%B0%E5%8C%BA"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">道峰区</span></span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">と</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%BA%AC%E7%95%BF%E9%81%93"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">京畿道</span></span></a><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%AD%B0%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E5%B8%82"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">議政府市</span></span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">虎院洞(ホウォンドン)、</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%A5%8A%E5%B7%9E%E5%B8%82"><span lang="EN-US">楊州市</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">長興面(チャンフンミョン)にまたがる山で、<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%8C%97%E6%BC%A2%E5%B1%B1"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">北漢山<span lang="EN-US">国<span lang="EN-US">立公園</span></span></span></span></a></span>の一部に属する。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">白頭大幹</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[1]</span></span><span style="font-size: large;">の分水嶺から南西方向に伸びた漢北正脈</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[2]</span></span><span style="font-size: large;">の連峰沿いに、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://climbeverymt.blogspot.jp/2013/02/935m.html"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">雲岳山</span></span></a></span><span style="font-size: large;">・</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://climbeverymt.blogspot.jp/2013/03/4707m.html"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">仏谷山</span></span></a></span><span style="font-size: large;">を経て南西方向へ下った後、ソウルの北東方向からそびえ立ち牛耳嶺</span></span><span style="font-size: large;">(ウイリョン)を境に北漢山へと繋がる。最高峰の紫雲峰(チャウンボン
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">739.5m</span><span style="font-size: large;">)を中心に、南方に萬丈峰(マンジャンボン)・仙人峰(ソニンボン)、西方に五峰(オボン)・女性峰(ヨソンボン)がある。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">雄大な奇岩怪石や鋭くそびえた岩峰が壮観で、四方に伸びた沢沿いに緑陰が茂る。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">面積は<span lang="EN-US">24</span>㎢で、北漢山の<span lang="EN-US">55</span>㎢に比べ、登山道の密度は高い。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;">[1]</span><span style="color: #333333;">白頭大幹(ペクトゥデガン) </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%A4%AA%E7%99%BD%E5%B1%B1%E8%84%88"><span lang="EN-US">太白山脈</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">や</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B0%8F%E7%99%BD%E5%B1%B1%E8%84%88"><span lang="EN-US">小白山脈</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">などで成す、朝鮮半島の脊梁山脈。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;">[2]</span><span style="color: #333333;">漢北正脈(ハンブッチョンメッ) </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%A4%AA%E7%99%BD%E5%B1%B1%E8%84%88"><span lang="EN-US">太白山脈</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">から</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%BC%A2%E6%B1%9F"><span lang="EN-US">漢江</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">へと至る山脈。<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;"><<span lang="EN-US">2012</span>年<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月<span lang="EN-US">20</span>日に撮影した動画><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;"><<span lang="EN-US">2011</span>年<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月<span lang="EN-US">2</span>日に撮影した動画><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;"><<span lang="EN-US">2010</span>年<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月<span lang="EN-US">1</span>日に撮影した動画><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-73679663829843893292015-04-02T19:15:00.002+09:002015-04-02T19:15:33.994+09:00「第2のサブプライム」再現、グローバル拡大懸念<div style="background: white; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">米<span lang="EN-US">FRB</span>が今年<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月から段階的に基準金利を引き上げることが確実視される中、その余波として住宅担保ローン危機が韓国を含め全世界に拡散する恐れがあるという懸念の声が出ている。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">日本では、米国の金利引き上げにより、去る<span lang="EN-US">2007</span>年の米国サブプライム住宅ローン危機当時の悪夢が今後<span lang="EN-US">2</span>~<span lang="EN-US">3</span>年のうちに再現される恐れが提起されている。サブプライム住宅ローン危機は、去る<span lang="EN-US">2000</span>年代前半のドットコム崩壊直後に、悪化した景気を引き上げるために米国政府が繰り広げた超低金利政策を終えたことにより発生した経済現象である。不動産バブルがはじけたことで住宅価格が下落、低金利時に無理なローンを組んだ住宅購入者が住宅ローンを償還できず自己破産に至り、彼らに貸し付けた米国の大手金融会社や証券会社も相次いで破産した。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">米<span lang="EN-US">CNN</span>マネーなど主要海外ニュースは、近く<span lang="EN-US">FRB</span>が金利を引き上げた場合、住宅担保ローン金利の上昇によりローンを返せずに苦しむ家庭が米国内で急増すると報じた。今回は<span lang="EN-US">2007</span>年のウォール街発金融危機よりもさらに大規模に起きる恐れもあるとの分析も一部で成されている。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">特に最近になり、韓国を含め世界主要国の中央銀行が相次いで自国通貨価値を下げる金融緩和に乗り出しており、米国の基準金利引き上げによりこれらの国内金融市場の変動幅は予想よりさらに大きくなると見込まれ、危機感はさらに高まっている。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">今年に入り、欧州中央銀行(<span lang="EN-US">ECB</span>)による量的緩和の決定前後に、中国、インド、カナダ、スウェーデン、スイス、オーストラリアなど<span lang="EN-US">18</span>か国が政策金利を引き下げた。世界主要国の金融緩和政策によりユーロや円など主要国通貨に対するウォンの価値が値上がりし、韓国銀行は金利を引き下げることでウォン高を抑制する必要性が高まったと判断したものと見られる。先月発表した<span lang="EN-US">1</span>%台への金利引き下げについて韓国銀行は、輸出競争力を高めデフレを防ぐ手段という公式見解を発表した。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">韓国は中央銀行が「<span lang="EN-US">1</span>%台基準金利」という前例なき道を選択したことで、住宅担保ローン金利も年<span lang="EN-US">2</span>%台時代を迎えることとなった。現に固定金利型住宅担保ローン金利(<span lang="EN-US">3</span>年後変動金利転換)が、韓国銀行による基準金利引き下げが発表された翌日の<span lang="EN-US">13</span>日には、最低<span lang="EN-US">2.72</span>%、最高<span lang="EN-US">3.02</span>%にまで下落した。固定金利型住宅担保ローン取引を始める場合に適用される金利は国債金利の上下動により変動するが、国債金利変動のほとんどは翌日即、住宅ローン金利に反映される。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">住宅担保ローンにそっぽを向く人々が増えることにより、家庭の借金が急増するという問題点が指摘されている。基準金利引き下げと政府の不動産金融規制緩和以降に急増した家庭の借金が、住宅担保ローンを中心により一層早く増える恐れがある。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">韓国銀行が苦肉の策として打ち出した金利引き下げ措置が、短期的には企業の立場から見て貿易収支を改善することになると見られるが、わずか<span lang="EN-US">2</span>~<span lang="EN-US">3</span>年後に目を向けても、実際に米<span lang="EN-US">FRB</span>の追加金利引き上げの直撃弾を受けることになるのは、低金利時に無理な住宅担保ローンを組んだ中間層以下の庶民層とならざるをえない。金利引き上げで、ローンを返すにあたり負担が増加した家庭の借金増がさらに速度を速め、実質的には打撃を受ける家庭が相次ぐとの見込みだ。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: yellow; color: red;">韓国銀行が短期的に引き下げた基準金利は</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">、時間差はあるだろうが、</span><span style="background-color: yellow; color: red;">最終的に米<span lang="EN-US">FRB</span>の金利引き上げに伴い急速に再上昇</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">せざるをえない。米国の基準金利が引き上げられることで、すぐに韓国の基準金利が上昇すると断言はできない。しかし</span><span style="background-color: yellow; color: red;">米韓の基準金利差が拡大すると</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">、ドルで構成される</span><span style="background-color: yellow; color: red;">国際資本が韓国から流出</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">することになり、この状況で韓国政府と中央銀行が</span><span style="background-color: yellow; color: red;">金利を上げずに持ちこたえるのは理論的にも実体市場からも事実上不可能</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">との見方が支配的だ。韓国の基準金利引き下げにより米国との対外金利差が縮小し、韓国金融市場から大規模な資本流出が起こりうるとの状況も取り上げられている。資本流出を防ぐには、基準金利を引き上げ、ドルに対するウォンの価値を上げる必要があるが、韓国銀行は反対に基準金利を引き下げた。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">早ければ<span lang="EN-US">2</span>年以内にも予想される米国基準金利<span lang="EN-US">3</span>%時代が現実となれば、韓国経済はすぐさま「借金の罠」に陥り、消費者購買力を失うことで内需悪化と景気後退の手順を踏むことになることは容易に予想できる。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;"><韓国 ブリッジ経済より><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Batang, serif;"><a href="http://www.viva100.com/main/view.php?key=20150329010004575">http://www.viva100.com/main/view.php?key=20150329010004575</a></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-31060384116075115032015-03-30T22:51:00.004+09:002015-03-30T22:53:05.387+09:00수급 변화가 나타내는 “엔화강세” 시그널은 진짜?<div style="background: white; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이미 언급한 대로 필자는 수급이 외환시장에
미치는 영향을 분석할 때 독자적으로 작성한 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">기초적 수급 밸런스</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이하 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">기초적수급</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">라는 포괄적인 계수를 참고하고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이것은 경상수지</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">직접투자</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">대외</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: 'MS ゴシック';">・</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">대내를 상쇄한 것</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">), </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">은행</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: 'MS ゴシック';">・</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">공적부문 이외의 대외 증권투자</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">대내 증권투자의 합계에서 외화 그대로 해외에
남는 재투자 수익을 공제한 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">차액이 플러스라면 엔화매수 초과</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">마이너스라면 엔화매도 초과를 의미한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 환율의 수준감을 정밀히 찾기 위한 수단이
아니지만 유력한 실마리가 된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">실은 이 기초적수급이 작년 하반기</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(7-12</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에 약간 플러스 방향</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔화매수 초과</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">으로 쏠렸다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">하지만 달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 환율은 대조적으로 지난 초가을 이후
급등했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">과거를 되돌아보면 엔 캐리 트레이드의 확대</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: 'MS ゴシック';">・</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">축소에 큰 영향을 받은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2005</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년부터 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2008</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년까지의 국면을 제외하고 기초적수급의 변화에
후행하는 꼴로 달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 환율이 따라온 인상도 있어 외환시장 전망 작성에 즈음해 이
움직임은 걱정된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">물론 추세를 보면 여전히 기초적수급이 마이너스</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔화매도 초과</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">기조 그대로이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그러나 금후의 대내</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: 'MS ゴシック';">・</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">대외 증권투자와 유가에 좌우되는 무역수지에 따라 플러스</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔화매수 초과</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">기조로 쏠릴 가능성도 있지 않을 수 없다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">과연 그 역전 현상이 일어나 엔화강세로
추세가 바뀔 것인가</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">?<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔화매수 경사의 심층과 지속력</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">구체적으로 아베노믹스로 인한 엔화약세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: 'MS ゴシック';">・</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">주가상승 경향이 선명해지기 시작한 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2013</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 이후에 좁혀 기초적수급의 추이를 되돌아보면</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, 2013</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년은 상반기가 약 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">13.4</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조엔의 엔화매수 초과였던데 비해 하반기는
약 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2.5</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조엔의 엔화매도 초과였다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. 2014</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년은 상반기에 약 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">9.6</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조엔의 엔화매도 초과로 확대된 후 하반기에는
약 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1.4</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조엔의 엔화매수 초과로 되돌아왔다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">즉 어디까지나 기초적수급 상의 이야기지만
엔화매도에 기운 수급환경의 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">바닥</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">은 작년 상반기라는 이미지다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">좀 더 자세히 기초적수급의 추이를 구성항목
별로 분석하면 작년 하반기에 엔화매수로 기울게 된 것은 대내 증권투자의 확대와 경상수지</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">재투자 수익을 제외</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 흑자확대였음을 알 수 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">먼저 대내 증권투자는 작년 하반기의 순
매수액이 약 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">13.9</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조엔이라는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2011</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 상반기 이래 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">7</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">기 만의 고수준이었다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">상품 별로 하반기에 확대된 이유를 찾으면
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">중장기 채로 순 매수가 확대된 점과</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> 2) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">주식</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: 'MS ゴシック';">・</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">투자 펀드 지분이 전기의 매도에서 매수로 쏠린 점을 지적할 수 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에 대해서는 각종 채권이 마이너스가 되는
유로권에서의 수요 증가나 베이시스 스왑 등과 관련해 일본 국채로의 투자가 유리해진 점 등을 이유로 지적하는 사람도 많다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">확실히 마이너스 금리가 상시화되는 유로권에서의
수요가 효력이 있다면 앞으로도 중장기 채로 계속 유입할 가능성이 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">하지만 작년 하반기의 대내 중장기 채의
순 매수액은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">10</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조엔을 넘어 현행 통계를 개시한 이래 가장 많았으며 너무나 거액이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이 규모의 투자가 계속되리라고 생각하기는
참 어렵다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에 대해서는 말할 것도 없이 작년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">10</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 말에 일본은행이 실시한 할로윈 완화로
인해 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">10-12</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월기에 가속한 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그러나 작년 후반에 해외 투자가가 순 매수를
과속시켰다고 하더라도 작년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년간 내내 일본주식을 가장 순 매수한 주체는 해외 투자가가 아니라
신탁은행이었다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">신탁은행을 경유한 흐름은 연금자금의 움직임을 파악한다고 생각되며
연금적립금 관리운용 독립행정법인</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(GPIF)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">을 비롯한 공적연금이 운용을 개혁한 영향이 나온 것으로 추측된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">예를 들어 작년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년간의 주식매매 동향에 관해 동증</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> 1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">부에서 보면 순 매수액은 해외 투자가가
약 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조엔인데 비해 신탁은행은 약 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2.7</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조엔이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이것이 올해 들어 해외 투자가가 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1-2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월을 합쳐 순 매도인 한편으로 신탁은행은
순 매수다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">만약 이런 경향이 계속된다면 해외 투자가의 일본주식 매수가 주도하는
꼴로 주식</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: 'MS ゴシック';">・</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">투자펀드 지분의 순 매수가 계속되는 일도
어려울 것으로 생각된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">신탁은행을 비롯한 국내세력의 일본주식 매수가
계기가 되면서 해외 투자가의 흐름을 끌어당기는 전개가 되면 다르지만 그래도 할로윈 완화 후의 기세를 수반해 대내 주식투자가 가속할 것으로 생각하는
것은 그다지 현실적인 상정이 아닐 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">즉 대내 중권투자의 급확대가 지속성을 수반한다고 생각하기가 어렵다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">유가하락에 따른 엔화강세 압력은 제한적</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그러면 경상수지</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">재투자 수익을 제외</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 흑자확대에 관해서는 어떤 말을 할 수
있을까</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">? </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이것은 원유시장에 좌우된다고 할 수밖에 없다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">현재의 무역수지 개선을 초래하고 있는 것은
수출증가보다 수입감소이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">확실히 수출수량지수의 상승도 산견되기 시작했으나
수입금액의 감소에 비하면 하찮다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이것은 무역수지의 변화를 국가</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: 'MS ゴシック';">・</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">지역별로 보면 일목요연하다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">예를 들어 작년 하반기는 무려 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">8</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">기만에 전년동기비로 수지가 개선됐다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">금액으로 보면 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1654</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">억엔의 개선인데 이 중에서 대 중동 무역수지는
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1569</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">억엔의 회복이었다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">무역수지 개선의 배경에는 여러 요인이 있겠으나
유가로 대부분이 설명 가능하다고 이것만으로도 알 수 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">유가의 정확한 예상은 어려운 일이며 필연적으로
경상수지가 기초적수급에 어떤 영향을 미칠 것인지는 솔직히 말해 내다볼 수 없다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">만역 유가가 최근부터 보합 상태가 된 경우
무역수지는 현저히 개선하겠지만 거꾸로 상승하면 곧 악화할 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이 점에서 작년 이후 이어지는 경상거래에
있어서의 엔화매수 수급의 회복은 단순한 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">외생적인 행운</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">을 얻은 결과에 불과하다고 할 수 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">물론 이유가 어떻든 기초적수급을 엔화매수로
기울게 하는 것임에 틀림없지만 실은 현재 기초적수급에 차지하는 경상수지</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">재투자 수익을 제외</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 비율은 결코 크지 않다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">예를 들어 작년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년간의 기초적수급이 약 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">8.3</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조엔의 엔화매도였던데 비해 경상수지</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">재투자 수익을 제외</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">는 약 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">3800</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">억엔 정도의 엔화매수라는 적은 액수였다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. 2000</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년부터 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2010</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년까지가 그랬듯이 연간 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">15</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조엔 정도의 경상흑자를 내고 그것이 기초적수급의
대세를 결정하는 구도에 이르지 않는 한 유가하락에 따른 수급 변화가 초래하는 엔화강세 압력은 제한적이지 않을까 싶다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">당시에 무역수지가 연간 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">10</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조엔 정도의 흑자를 쌓아올린 점을 고려하면
장벽이 높다고 할 수 밖에 없다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">지난 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">5</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 평균으로는 연간 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">5.7</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조엔의 적자</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">).<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">대외 증권투자 가속으로 엔화약세 압력이
이길 것</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이렇게 생각해 보면 작년 하반기 이후에
기초적수급을 엔화매수로 기울게 한</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> 2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">개의 요인</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">대내 증권투자의 확대와 경상수지의 흑자확대</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">은 앞으로 확실히 엔화약세의 걸림돌이 될
가능성이 있으나 본격적인 엔화강세 시프트를 초래할 만큼의 큰 흐름이 되지 않을 것으로 생각된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">오히려 주목해야 할 것은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">4</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월에 시작될 신년도 이후 대외 증권투자가
가속할 것으로 내다볼 수 있는 점이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">대저 대외 증권투자는 작년도 상반기의 약 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">6</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조엔에서 하반기의 약 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">8.2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조엔으로 순 매수</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔화매도</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">를 가속시켰다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">대외 증권투자 가속의 배경에는 국내의 초저금리
환경이나 미일의 금융정책 격차와 같은 극히 기본적인 운용환경도 있지만 상술한 일본주식으로의 투자와 마찬가지로 여기서도 공적연금 운용개혁의 영향을
무시할 수 없다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">예를 들어 올해 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 말에 공표된 작년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">12</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 말 시점의 운용상황을 바탕으로 시산한
경우 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">GPIF</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">는 나머지 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">9</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조엔 이상 엔화매도 여지를 갖고 있을 것으로
추측된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">또 올해 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">10</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월에는 국가공무원 공제조합 연합회</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(KKR), </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">지방공무원 공제조합 연합회</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일본 사립학교 진흥</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: 'MS ゴシック';">・</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">공제 사업단의 주요 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">3</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">공제</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">운용자산 합계는 약 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">30</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조엔</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">와 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">GPIF</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 운용 일원화를 앞두고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">더군다나 그 밖의 공적연금과 기관 투자가들도
리스크 테이크 자세가 강해지는 경향에 있다고 한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">실제로 재무성이 공표한 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">대외 및 대내증권 매매계약 등의 상황</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">을 투자가 부문별로 보면 은행 등 및 신탁은행</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">산탁계정</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">은 올해 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 시점에서 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">11</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">개월 연속 순 매수였다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">동기간을 평균하면 매월 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">6000</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">억엔 이상 대외 증권투자가 신탁은행</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">산탁계정</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에서 나와 있는 이미지다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이것은 다른 투자가와 비교해도 뛰어난 추세다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">미 금융정책의 정상화라는 외부환경도 곁들어
대외 증권투자가 엔화매도 압력을 계속 확대하는 상황은 쉽게 상상할 수 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">물론 올해 중에 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">=130</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔까지를 내다보는 일본은행이 할로윈 완화
시의 로직에 따라 추가완화를 실시하는 결단이 필요해질 것으로 생각된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">하지만 그것은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔화약세가 어디까지 진행할지</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">라는 차원의 논의지 추가완화가 없었다고
해서 엔화강세 반전까지 내다보는 것은 아니다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">적어도 미 연방준비이사회</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(FRB)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가 금융정책의 정상화 과정을 순조롭게 진행하고
있는 한 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">쌀 때 달러를 사 두고 싶다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">고 생각하는 경제주체</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">기업</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">기관 투자가</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">개인 투자가 등</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">는 도쿄 시장에 많을 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="background-color: yellow; color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔화약세 시나리오의 대세는 쉽게 흔들리지 않을 것</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> 같다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="background-color: white; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">역사적으로도 </span><span lang="KO" style="background-color: yellow; color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">미 금융정책의 정상화가 진정되고 국내에서 해외로 대외 증권투자가 가속하는
상황 하에서는 기조적인 엔화약세가 진행</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">되기 쉬웠다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">뒤집어 말하면 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">FRB</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에 의한 금융정책의 정상화 과정이 미국경제에
부정적인 영향을 미치기 시작해 그 걸음이 멈췄을 때는 대외 증권투자 가속의 전제가 될 수 있는 금리차 확대는 기대할 수 없게 되며 기초적수급에
있어어의 엔화매도 초과의 구도가 동요하게 될 것 같다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">또 상술한 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">GPIF</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">를 비롯한 운용변경은 올 가을을 목표로
안정될 가능성도 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">연내는 엔화매도 흐름이 꿋꿋하게 계속된다고 하더라도 </span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2016</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년에는 또 다른 수급의 상정이 필요</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">해질 수도 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">성급한 이야기지만 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="background-color: yellow; color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">내년은 단순한 엔화약세 시나리오로 딱 잘라 단정 지울 수 없는 시장이 될 리스크</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">를 품고 있을 것 같다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">로이터 외환 포럼</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">></span></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://jp.reuters.com/article/jp_forumcolumn/idJPKBN0MN06Y20150327"><span style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">http://jp.reuters.com/article/jp_forumcolumn/idJPKBN0MN06Y20150327</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Gulim",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-21062273520166521032015-03-22T16:52:00.002+09:002015-03-22T16:52:46.876+09:00仏岩山(プラムサン/509.7m/ソウル市・京畿道)<div style="margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">仏岩山は</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%BD%E3%82%A6%E3%83%AB%E7%89%B9%E5%88%A5%E5%B8%82"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">ソウル市</span></span></a><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%8A%A6%E5%8E%9F%E5%8C%BA"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">芦原区</span></span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">と</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%BA%AC%E7%95%BF%E9%81%93"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">京畿道</span></span></a><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%8D%97%E6%A5%8A%E5%B7%9E%E5%B8%82"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">南楊州市</span></span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">別内面(ピョルレミョン)にまたがる岩山である。芦原区と</span>南楊州市の境界を成しており、<span style="color: #333333;">徳陵峠(トンヌンコゲ)を間に置いて</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://climbeverymt.blogspot.jp/2013/02/6406m.html"><span lang="EN-US">水落山</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">と隣接している。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">仏岩山は砂岩質の岩山であるため鬱蒼とした樹林はないが、稜線は奇岩でつながり、春の</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%AF%E3%83%AD%E3%83%95%E3%83%8D%E3%83%84%E3%83%84%E3%82%B8"><span lang="EN-US">クロフネツツジ</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">は花園を思い起こさせる。</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%8C%97%E6%BC%A2%E5%B1%B1"><span lang="EN-US">北漢山</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">同様、ロッククライミングの練習に適したコースがあり、休日になるとクライミング装備を身につけた健脚の若者が引きも切らず訪れる。山頂に立つと、北漢山や道峰山の峰々が眼前に広がる。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">観光の見所として泰康陵(テガンヌン)があるが、これは</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%9D%8E%E6%B0%8F%E6%9C%9D%E9%AE%AE"><span lang="EN-US">李氏朝鮮</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">第<span lang="EN-US">11</span>代国王</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%AD%E5%AE%97_%28%E6%9C%9D%E9%AE%AE%E7%8E%8B%29"><span lang="EN-US">中宗</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">の<span lang="EN-US">3</span>人目の王妃、</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%96%87%E5%AE%9A%E7%8E%8B%E5%90%8E"><span lang="EN-US">文定王后尹氏</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">の陵「泰陵」と、第<span lang="EN-US">13</span>代国王</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%98%8E%E5%AE%97_(%E6%9C%9D%E9%AE%AE%E7%8E%8B)"><span lang="EN-US">明宗</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">及び仁順王后沈氏の陵「康陵」とを合わせた名称である。文人石像と武人石像を比べると二つの陵は酷似しているが、康陵は欄干石を打ち抜いて双陵にしてあるところが泰陵と異なる。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">朝鮮王朝時代には楊州牧(ヤンジュモッ、朝鮮王朝時代の地方行政区域の一つ)に属していた山で、元々は「筆岩山(ピラムサン)」と呼ばれ、墨洞や硯村とともに筆・墨・硯で地気を抑えるという風水地名であった。仏岩山という名は、大岩でできた峰がまるでソンナッ(僧侶が普段衲衣とともに身につけるかぶり物)をかぶった仏のように見えるところから名付けられた。また、別名を「天宝山(チョンボサン)」ともいう。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">ソウル市芦原区は<span style="color: #333333;">仏岩山都市自然公園の中渓地区(中渓洞山<span lang="EN-US">42-3</span>番地一帯)に<span lang="EN-US">64,761</span>㎡規模の「自然史生態広場」を造成すると明らかにした。また<span lang="EN-US">2009</span>年<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月には、仏岩山と漢字まで同名のタレント、崔仏岩さんを仏岩山の名誉主人として委嘱した。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">芦原区<span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%8A%E6%B8%93%E9%A7%85">上<span lang="EN-US">渓<span lang="EN-US">駅</span></span></a></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: large; text-indent: 12pt;">からも見える花崗岩の主峰の南には、標高</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large; text-indent: 12pt;">420m</span><span style="font-size: large; text-indent: 12pt;">の第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large; text-indent: 12pt;">2</span><span style="font-size: large; text-indent: 12pt;">峰がある。</span><span style="color: #333333; font-size: large; text-indent: 12pt;">仏岩山は<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%BC%A2%E6%B1%9F"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">漢<span lang="EN-US">江</span></span></span></a></span></span><span style="font-size: large; text-indent: 12pt;">支流の漢川(ハンチョン)沿いに形成された漢川平野の東に位置し、平野を間に置いて西は北漢山と向かい合い、北は水落山と隣接している。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">主峰と第<span lang="EN-US">2</span>峰の間には仏岩寺(プラムサ)がある。山の南麓には仏岩山滝(プラムサンポッポ)、石泉庵</span>(ソクチョナム)、鶴到庵(ハクトアム)、康陵、泰陵などが、西麓には浄岩寺(チョンアムサ)、薬昭庵(ヤクソアム)などがあり、山頂には仏岩山城址が残っている。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;"><<span lang="EN-US">2011</span>年<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月<span lang="EN-US">24</span>日に撮影した動画><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "MS Pゴシック"; mso-bidi-font-family: "MS Pゴシック"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><登山地図><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'MS Pゴシック';"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">(動画の</span><span style="color: red;">登り=赤</span><span style="color: #333333;"> </span><span style="color: blue;">下り=青</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'MS Pゴシック';"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">それ以外の日に</span><span style="color: #38761d;">投稿者が歩いた登山道=緑</span><span style="color: #333333;">)</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-39269683509124121362015-03-22T16:39:00.001+09:002015-03-22T16:39:34.280+09:00우쓰미네산(宇津峰山/676.9m/후쿠시마현)<div style="background: white; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">우쓰미네산은 </span></span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif; font-size: large;">아부쿠마</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif; font-size: large;">(</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif; font-size: large;">阿武</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: 'MS ゴシック'; font-size: large;">隈</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif; font-size: large;">) </span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif; font-size: large;">고지에
있는 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%ED%9B%84%EC%BF%A0%EC%8B%9C%EB%A7%88_%ED%98%84"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">후쿠시마 현</span></a></span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif; font-size: large;">의 산이다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif; font-size: large;">. “</span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">우쓰쿠시마 백명산</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[1]</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">으로 선정되어 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">단지 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">우쓰미네</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">宇津峰</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">,</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">宇津峯</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">라고 불리기도 한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">우쓰미네산은 </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EA%B3%A0%EB%A6%AC%EC%95%BC%EB%A7%88_%EC%8B%9C"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">고리야마 시</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">와 </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EC%8A%A4%EC%B9%B4%EA%B0%80%EC%99%80_%EC%8B%9C"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">스카가와 시</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 경계에 위치하는 독립봉이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">정상 부근에는 우즈미네 곤피라</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">雲水峰金比羅</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">신사와 호시</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">星</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">신사가 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">산책길이 정비돼 있어 하이킹을 하기에는
안성맞춤이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">고리야마 시 측은 본격적인 등산로로 가파른
길이 많다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">또 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">우쓰미네 삼립공원</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">으로서 자동차도가 정비돼 있어 자동차로
정산 부근까지 접근할 수 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">등산로입구는 주로 야타가와</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">谷田川</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 바바다이라</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">馬場平</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">등산로입구가 이용된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">스카가와 시 측은 후쿠시마 현도 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">233</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">호 우즈미네 에모치</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">雲水峰江持</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">선이 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">시민의 숲</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">까지 뻗어 있고 등산로도 잘 정비돼 있으며
남쪽 사면이라 밝고 오르기 쉬운 코스이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">등산로입구는 주로 시오다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">塩田</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 시미즈</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">淸水</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">등산로입구가 이용된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">야마비라키</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">山開き</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">개산식</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">는 매년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">4</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">29</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일에 열리며 고리야마 시 측과 스카가와
시 측 각각에서 개최된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">또 우쓰미네산에 서식하는 날다람쥐는 산기슭
스카가와 시 오시오에</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">小塩江</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">지구의 </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://jpdic.naver.com/search.nhn?query=%EC%BA%90%EB%A6%AD%ED%84%B0"><span lang="KO" style="color: black; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">캐릭터</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">로서 홍보에 나서거나 동네 운동회 등에서
제</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://jpdic.naver.com/search.nhn?query=%EB%B0%94%EB%8B%A5"><span lang="KO" style="color: black; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">바닥</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://jpdic.naver.com/search.nhn?query=%EC%82%AC%EB%9E%8C"><span lang="KO" style="color: black; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">사람</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">들이 날다람쥐 가장을 해서 참가하는 등
자그마한 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">유루캬라</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”(</span></span><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">느슨한 캐릭터</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">로서 친근감을
받고 있다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">14</span><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">세기 </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EB%82%9C%EB%B3%B4%EC%BF%A0%EC%B4%88_%EC%8B%9C%EB%8C%80"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">난보쿠초 시대</span></a></span><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 성터 유구이기도 하며 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">우쓰미네</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">로서 일본의 사적으로
지정돼 있다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EB%8F%84%ED%98%B8%EC%BF%A0_%EC%A7%80%EB%B0%A9"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">도호쿠 지방</span></a></span><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에서의 </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EB%82%A8%EC%A1%B0_(%EC%9D%BC%EB%B3%B8)"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">남조</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> </span><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">측 거점이었으며 정상에는 토루 터가 지금도 남아 있다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<span class="MsoHyperlink"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">[1]</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">우쓰쿠시마 백명산</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">うつくしま百名山</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) 1998</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년에 선정된 후쿠시마
현의 명산들</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. ‘</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">우쓰쿠시마</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">'</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">는 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">‘</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">우쓰쿠시이</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">’(</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">아름답다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">와 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">‘</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">후쿠시마</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">’</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">를 합친 조어</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이 블로그 내에서 소개하는 후쿠시마 현의 산은 대부분 선정되어 있다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><2012</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">4</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일에 촬영한 동영상</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">시민의
숲 등산로 입구에서 원점 회귀</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">)></span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-33911840063523198092015-03-01T06:05:00.001+09:002015-03-01T06:07:21.357+09:00韓国銀行、「通貨戦争」で追加金利引き下げに踏み切るか?<div style="background: white; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">日本や中国などの通貨戦争で、韓国銀行が来たる<span lang="EN-US">3</span>~<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月頃に追加で金利を引き下げる可能性があるとの見方が出ている。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">ハナ大投証券のソ・ジェヨン研究員は<span lang="EN-US">22</span>日、「韓国銀行を圧迫するアジアの通貨戦争」というレポートで、「日本と中国の通貨及び為替政策は、韓国が通貨戦争に参加すべきか否かを判断する重要な要因とならざるを得ない」とした上で、「<span lang="EN-US">3</span>~<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月頃に物価安と内需拡大を名目とし、韓国銀行による金利引き下げが断行される可能性を排除できない」と述べた。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">日本と中国のいずれも金融緩和や漸進的な自国通貨安を誘導する可能性が高いとの分析だ。この場合、韓国もやはり通貨戦争に飛び込まざるを得ない構造だと見ている。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">ソ研究員は、「欧州中央銀行(<span lang="EN-US">ECB</span>)の量的緩和から始まった通貨戦争において、韓国を含めた東アジアもただ指をくわえて見ているわけにはいかない公算が大きい」としながら、「日中韓いずれも成長鈍化という難題を払拭できずにおり、輸出を簡単に放棄するわけにはいかないのがその理由」と説明した。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">さらに、「<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月に予想されている米国の金利引き上げを考慮すれば、日本と中国の通貨及び為替政策の変化は<span lang="EN-US">3</span>~<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月を超えない可能性が高い」とし、「<span lang="EN-US">3</span>~<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月には韓国銀行が追加金利引き下げを断行する可能性がある」と予測した。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">政府もやはり資本の流出入規制などを掲げてウォン安を誘導する可能性が高い、と見通した。ソ研究員は「実際、昨年<span lang="EN-US">10-12</span>月期以降、為替当局は介入を通じ円ウォン相場を<span lang="EN-US">900</span>ウォン台で防御しているものと見られ、来たる</span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">4-6</span><span style="color: red;">月期にはドル円相場が<span lang="EN-US">1</span>ドル<span lang="EN-US">=125</span>円、ドルウォン相場が<span lang="EN-US">1</span>ドル<span lang="EN-US">=1,140</span>ウォン台にまで上昇</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">する」と予想した。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;"><韓国 アジア経済新聞より></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://view.asiae.co.kr/news/view.htm?idxno=2015022215055018246">http://view.asiae.co.kr/news/view.htm?idxno=2015022215055018246</a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-22058212579505933812015-02-28T07:17:00.002+09:002015-02-28T07:18:39.647+09:00엔화약세 추세의 “전환”은 언제?<div style="background: white; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">지난 달에 영국의 이코노미스트 지 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">빅맥 지수</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가 경신됐다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">구매력 평가에 의거한 이 지수에 따르면
엔화는 달러 대비 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">34.4% </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">과소 평가돼 있으며 이른바 선진 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">10 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">통화</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(G10</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">통화</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">중에서 가장 약세를 보이고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그 다음에 약세인 통화는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">11% </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">과소 평가돼 있는 유로화인데 엔화와는 큰
차이가 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">한편 가장 강세인 통화는 스위스 프랑이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(57.5% </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">과대 평가</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">). 1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">15</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일에 스위스 국립은행</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">중앙은행</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">철벽</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">으로 생각됐던 대 유로 상한을 폐지한 일은
기억에 새롭다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">필자도 직업상 통화의 다각적인 적정가격
분석을 하고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그 시산으로도 역시 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">G10 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">통화 중에서 엔화가 가장 과소 평가돼 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">물론 통화의 강세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">약세 판단은 항상 주의가 필요하고 그 투자
전략으로 응용할 때는 더욱 신중을 기할 필요가 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그 이유는 마크로 경제변수가 대부분 그렇듯이
외환시장 또한 다종다양한 요인에 견인돼 있어 적정가격 분석이 놓치고 있는 요인도 존재할 것이기 때문이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">실제로 과거에 외환시장이 기존의 분석수법으로
산출된 적정수준으로부터 괴리한 상태로 추이하거나 괴리 폭을 장기간에 걸쳐 확대시킨 예는 곳곳에서 보여왔다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그러나 외환시장 변동기에 있어서 적정가격
분석이 수준을 판단하는 데에 한 근거가 된다는 것은 확실하다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><2014</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년은 기초적 국제수지의 밑바닥</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">전술한 바와 같이 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2012</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 후반부터 시작된 엔화약세 추세에서</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">적어도 현재의 거시 펀더멘털을 전제로 하면
어느 정도 확실히 엔화는 그런 대로 과소평가 영역에 들어갔다고 할 수 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">과소평가가 진행되면 일본의 국제수지 동향에
어떻게 반영될지 주목된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">대외수지 기조로서 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">기초적 국제수지</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">를 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">경상수지</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">+</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">직접투자수지</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">+</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">증권투자수지</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">로 정의한다고 하자</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">경상수지는 무역수지와 소득수지로 구성된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">무역수지는 작년까지 엔화약세 영향으로 에너지
수지를 중심으로 적자가 커졌는데</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">올해는 공동화가 진행되고 있다고는 하지만 어느 정도 가격 경쟁력이
회복됨에 따라 수출이 늘어날 것으로 예상된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이 수개월에 흑자화의 조짐이 보이는 여행수지는</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">금액은 적지만 가격 경쟁력의 회복을 나타내는
일례일 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">세계최대의 대외 순 자산국인 일본에 있어서 소득흑자는 단기적으로는
안정될 것으로 예상되며 현재까지는 엔화약세로 인해 엔화 베이스 흑자액이 완만하게 확대되고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. 2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">9</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일에 공표된 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">12</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 국제수지 통계에서는 경상수지가 계절
조절 후 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">9,766</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">억원이라는 동일본 대지진 이후 최고치를 기록했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">한편 대외 직접투자는 저출산과 저 부가가치
제품의 아웃소스화가 진행되고 있는 가운데 장기적으로는 견조 추이를 계속할 것으로 보이나 그래도 현재의 환율수준으로는 일본기업의 일부가 국내로 회귀할
것으로 기대된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">또 대외 증권투자에 대해서는 작년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">4</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월부터 왕성한 외국 증권투자가 보였으나
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">10-12</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월기는 대외 주식투자가 견실한 한편 대외 채권투자는 크게 둔화되고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">모두 다종다양한 요인이 있겠지만 엔화약세로
인해 일본의 자산과 오퍼레이션 코스트가 저렴해진 것이 큰 요인일 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">다만 브렌트 유가가 올해 당사가 예상한
연간 평균 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">52</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러 안팎에서 추이한다면 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2015</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년은 유가 하락의 영향이 압도적으로 다른
요인을 능가해 기초적 국제수지는 회복할 것으로 생각된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">당사의 예상으로는 유가 하락에 이끌어져
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2015</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년의 경상흑자는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">8</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조엔 정도 증가할 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">따라서 적어도 경기주기의 시간축으로 보면
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2014</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년이 기초적 국제수지의 밑바닥이었을 가능성이 높다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">단기적으로는 엔화약세가 진행될 가능성이
있음</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이렇게 보면 엔화약세가 국제수지 개선과
함께 장래적으로 시정될 가능성은 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그래도 필자가 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2015</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년에 한층 더 엔화약세가 진행될 것으로
예상하는 이유는 금융정책이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">물론 일본은행의 양적 질적 완화정책</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(QQE)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에 대한 시장의 예측은 일단 완료됐으며
미국의 금리인상도 무조건 엔화약세로 이어지는 것은 아니다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">재미있게도 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1994</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">), 1999</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(6</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">), 2004</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(6</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이라는 지난 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">3</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">번의 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">FRB </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">금리인상 사이클 개시 전후를 보면 금리를
인상한 달을 포함해 직전 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">6</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">개월에서는 달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔이 평균 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2.6% </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">상승했으나 그 후 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">6</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">개월은 평균 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">8.4% </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">하락했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">따라서 금리를 인상한 전후 수개월을 중기적으로
보면 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">미국의 금리인상</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">=</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 상승</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이라는 법칙은 과거의 예로부터 찾아낼 수
없다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그러나 </span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">늦어도 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2015</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">9</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월에 예상될 금리인상을 향해 엔화약세 방향으로 쏠릴 가능성이 높다</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">QQE</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">로 인해 일본의 국채 금리는 모두 하락했으며
올해 들어 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년채는 한때 마이너스</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, 5</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년채도 한때 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">0%</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에 접근했고 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">10</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년채도 대강 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">0.3% </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">안팎에서 추이하고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">국채시장의 유동성 후퇴와 금융기관의 차익금
압축 등 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">QQE</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 부작용을 지적하는 소리가 올리는 가운데 일본은행의 물가전망은
계속 강세이기 때문에 정책에는 여전히 완화 바이어스가 걸려 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이 상태로 단기금리를 비롯해 미국 금리
곡선이 전체적으로 상승하기 시작하면 미국 금리가 여전히 저수준에 있다고 해도 국내 투자가에 의한 미국 채권 매수가 어느 정도 회복될 것으로 예상되며
단기적으로는 그것을 웃도는 투기 머니도 엔화매도</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러매수에 쏠릴 것으로 쉽게 상상할 수
있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이 투자와 투기 흐름이 경상수지와 직접투자 개선의 영향을 일시적으로는
능가할 것으로 생각된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">금융정책의 괴리는 전술한 적정가격 분석에
직접적으로 인풋으로서 내재돼 있지 않아 현재 시장이 주목하는 점이 각국의 인플레 펀더멘털과 금융정책임을 고려하면 단기적으로는 달러 대비 엔화약세가
더욱 진행될 가능성이 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">=130</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 바로 앞이 절정</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">?><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그러나 과거의 사례가 시사하는 대로 미국
금리인상 전후에 적어도 일단은 추세가 전환될 가능성이 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">필자도 </span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2012</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년부터 시작된 엔화약세가 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">130</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 바로 앞에서 일단 절정에 도달</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">할 이미지를 그리고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그것은 일본의 장기적인 리플레이션 정책의
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">앵커</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가 환율로부터 주식시장으로</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그리고 최종적으로는 실체경제로</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">변천될 것을 의미할지도 모른다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">또 기초적 국제수지가 해외경제의 개선과
엔화의 과소평가로 인해 회복국면에 들며</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">유가하락 영향의 박락과 수급 갭의 타이트화 그리고 인플레 기대
상승으로 인플레가 상승 기조로 전환되면</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">지금은 상상하기 어렵지만 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">디플레를 벗어나려고 하는 일본은행</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에 의한 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">출구가 보이지 않는 완화정책</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이라는 전제가 추궁받기 시작하는 시나리오가
내년 이후 부각될 가능성이 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">물론 이것은 오히려 낙관적인 시나라오임을
인정해야 하며</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">인구가 감소하고 공적채무가 쌓이는 가운데 악화되는 초장기 펀더멘털이
가일층의 엔화약세 수준을 정당화할 리스크는 무시할 수 없다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">한편 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">QQE</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가 미치는 채권시장으로의 부작용이 표면화돼서
정책의 지속성이 추궁받게 되면 조기에 엔화강세로 쏠릴 가능성이 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">다만 그런 네거티브한 시나리오는 시기상조라고
필자는 생각한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">올해 들어 미국을 제외한 각국의 중앙은행이
완화하기로 결단을 내리고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">캐나다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">호주를 중심으로 하는 커모디티 수출국은
깜짝 금리인하를 연출했고 디플레 리스크가 높아지는 유로권은 양적완화 정책을 발표했으며 그 주변국의 중앙은행에도 완화 압력은 파급되고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그러한 가운데 선행해서 추가완화를 내세운
일본은행은 당분간 현상유지가 예상되고 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔화 나홀로 약세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가 단기적으로 진행되는 상황이 아니며 엔화의
재정환율은 연초 이후 하락 압력이 걸려 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">한편 이런 완화책은 그리스 리스크와 유가하락의
나쁜 영향이 우려되는 가운데 리스크 자산과 성장을 뒷받침하기 때문에 달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 환율에 미치는 영향의 방향성은 쌍방향적으로
결정적이라고 할 수 없다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">다만 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">환율전쟁</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">” </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">시작을 지적하는 소리도 있어 결과적으로
외환시장의 볼러틸리티는 높은 시세인 채로 떨어지지 않을 가능성이 높다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">올해 전반은 국제수지 개선을 주시하고 미국경제와
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">FRB</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 금리인상 사이클이 언제 시작될지를 가늠하면서 가일층의 엔화약세 시나리오 그리고 그 후의 추세 전환의
옳고 그름을 판단하게 될 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. 2015</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년은 엔화 환율의 분수령이 될까</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">?<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">로이터 외환 포럼</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><a href="http://jp.reuters.com/article/jp_forumcolumn/idJPKBN0LG0DN20150212">http://jp.reuters.com/article/jp_forumcolumn/idJPKBN0LG0DN20150212</a></span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-52387049935385761452015-02-27T15:46:00.001+09:002015-02-27T15:46:25.919+09:00祝霊山(チュンニョンサン/888m/京畿道)<div style="margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">祝霊山は</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%BA%AC%E7%95%BF%E9%81%93"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">京畿道</span></span></a><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%8D%97%E6%A5%8A%E5%B7%9E%E5%B8%82"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">南楊州市</span></span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">と</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%8A%A0%E5%B9%B3%E9%83%A1"><span lang="EN-US">加平郡</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">の境に位置する山で、別名を飛龍山とも言う。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%AB%98%E9%BA%97"><span lang="EN-US">高麗</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">末期、</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%9D%8E%E6%88%90%E6%A1%82"><span lang="EN-US">李成桂</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">が即位する前にここへ狩りに訪れたが、<span lang="EN-US">1</span>匹の獲物も捕らえられずに戻ってきた勢子たちが「ここは聖なる霊山なので山神祭を執り行わなければなりません」と話し、その翌日、山頂で祭祀を挙げた後で狩りに臨んだところイノシシを捕らえた、という伝説がその名の由来と言われる。ただ、李成桂までもが登場する由来としては、その根拠が薄弱ではなかろうか。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">もう一つ、あまり知られていない由来だが、</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%9D%8E%E6%B0%8F%E6%9C%9D%E9%AE%AE"><span lang="EN-US">李氏朝鮮</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">の</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%96%E7%A5%96_(%E6%9C%9D%E9%AE%AE%E7%8E%8B)"><span lang="EN-US">世祖</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">・</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%9D%BF%E5%AE%97_(%E6%9C%9D%E9%AE%AE%E7%8E%8B)"><span lang="EN-US">睿宗</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">時代に若くして不遇の死を遂げた</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%8D%97%E6%80%A1"><span lang="EN-US">南怡</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">将軍と関わる説がある。祝霊山には南怡将軍が幼少時に武芸を磨いていたという南怡岩(ナミバウイ)があり、山頂の東方には加平の</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%8D%97%E6%80%A1%E5%B3%B6"><span lang="EN-US">南怡島</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">があることからも、南怡将軍説の根拠は薄くない。柳子光(ユ・ジャグァン)の偽告発を真に受けた睿宗が<span lang="EN-US">28</span>歳の南怡を処刑すると、この付近の住民たちが彼の霊魂を慰めようとして南怡と関わりがあるこの山を祝霊山と名づけた、という。あまり知られてはいないが、南怡将軍由来説のほうが親近感を感じる。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">祝霊山西側のチョンジラ谷には祝霊山自然休養林がある。樹齢<span lang="EN-US">60</span>年の</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%83%81%E3%83%A7%E3%82%A6%E3%82%BB%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B4%E3%83%A8%E3%82%A6"><span lang="EN-US">チョウセンゴヨウ</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">の森が鬱蒼としており、水遊び場や自然観察園、芝生広場、</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%AF%E3%83%AD%E3%83%95%E3%83%8D%E3%83%84%E3%83%84%E3%82%B8"><span lang="EN-US">クロフネツツジ</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">園などが整備されている。祝霊山東側の麓(</span>加平郡<span style="color: #333333;">)には</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%A2%E3%83%81%E3%83%A0%E3%82%B4%E3%83%A8%E6%A8%B9%E6%9C%A8%E5%9C%92"><span lang="EN-US">アチムゴヨ樹木園</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">がある。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;"><<span lang="EN-US">2010</span>年<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月<span lang="EN-US">23</span>日に撮影した動画><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-13321039378740335772015-02-27T15:37:00.000+09:002015-02-27T15:37:24.230+09:00가마쿠라다케(鎌倉岳/669.1m/후쿠시마현)<div style="background: white; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가마쿠라다케는 </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%ED%9B%84%EC%BF%A0%EC%8B%9C%EB%A7%88_%ED%98%84"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">후쿠시마 현</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EC%9D%B4%EC%8B%9C%EC%B9%B4%EC%99%80_%EA%B5%B0_(%ED%9B%84%EC%BF%A0%EC%8B%9C%EB%A7%88_%ED%98%84)"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이시카와 군</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%ED%9B%84%EB%A3%A8%EB%8F%84%EB%85%B8_%EC%A0%95"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">후루도노 정</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">중심부에 위치하는 상징적인 산이며</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">예전에는 야마부시</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[1]</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">들의 슈겐 도장이었던 영산이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">옛날에 </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EA%B0%80%EB%A7%88%EC%BF%A0%EB%9D%BC_%EC%8B%9C"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가마쿠라</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에서 다카누키</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">竹貫</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">성 성주에게 시집 온 공주님이 고향을 그리워하면서
밤마다 우는 모습을 보고 마을 사람이 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">저 산에 오르면 가마쿠라가 보입니다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">라고 말해 공주님을 이 산으로 데리고 갔다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그 배려에 공주님이 매우 감동해 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가마쿠라다케</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">라고 부르게 됐다는 전승이 남아 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">후쿠시마 현에는 </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EB%8B%A4%EB%AC%B4%EB%9D%BC_%EC%8B%9C"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">다무라 시</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">구 도키와</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">常葉</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">정</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에도 같은 이름인 가마쿠라다케가 있으니
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">다카누키 가마쿠라다케</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">라고 불리기도 한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. “</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이와우치와</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">학명 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">Shortia uniflora)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">와 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가타쿠리</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">얼레지</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 군락도 유명하다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">후루도노 정의 정 사무소 옆에 있는 임도를
자동차로</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> 10</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">분 정도 가면 다이사쿠</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">大作</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">등산로 입구가 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">화장실과 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">10 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">대 정도 세울 수 있는 주차장이 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">주차장 옆에는 약수터가 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이 약수는 그 고장에 살면서 일본에서 제일
고령</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(103</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">으로 후지산에 등반한 고 이가라시 씨가
애음했었다는 것에 연관지어 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">장수 약수</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">라고 이름지어졌다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">주차장은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">8</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">고메</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[2]</span> </span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif; font-size: large;">부근에 있어 여기서
정상까지 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif; font-size: large;">20</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif; font-size: large;">분 정도
소요</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif; font-size: large;">.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">도중 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EB%8D%B4%EA%B5%AC"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">덴구</span></a></span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 발자국</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">을 지나면 가파른
자갈 사면을 오르게 된다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">거리는
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">100m </span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">정도이긴 하나 쇠사슬을 잡고 꽤 가파른 사면을 올라가야 한다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">정상다운 바위로 좁은
정상에는 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">4</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">등 삼각점과
사당터가 있으며 눈 아래에는 후루도노 정의 거리가 펼쳐진다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">조망도 뛰어나고 아부쿠마</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">阿武</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: 'MS ゴシック';">隈</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">고지의
산줄기가 아름답다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">시계가
좋으면 서쪽에 </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://climbeverymt.blogspot.jp/2013/03/1917m.html"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">나스 연봉</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">북서쪽에 </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://climbeverymt.blogspot.jp/2013/03/18163m.html"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">반다이산</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">과 </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://climbeverymt.blogspot.jp/2013/03/1700m.html"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">아다타라 연봉</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">북쪽에 오타키네야마</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">大瀧根山</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">), </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">동쪽에 태평양 등을 멀리 바라볼 수 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">정상에서 경치를 실컷 즐긴 후에는 가마쿠라다케
산책길로 가기를 추전한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. 1990</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년에 완성된 산책길은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2001</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년에 후쿠시마 민보가 주최한 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">후쿠시마의 산책길 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">50</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">선</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에 꼽힌 둘렛길이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">한 바퀴 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1.5km(1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">시간 정도</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">로 길도 잘 정비돼 있으니 꼭 산책해 주시기
바란다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">고마가타</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">駒形</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">신사는 이름 그대로 말의 신으로 추앙받으며
망아지가 태어나면 떡을 바치는 풍습이 있었다고 한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이와우치와 군락도 유명하고 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">4</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 후반에 절정이 되는데 그 외에도 가타구리</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, “</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">시로바나엔레이소</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">큰연영초</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">), “</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">히토리시즈카</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">홀아비꽃대</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">등도 핀다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">니이치바</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">荷市場</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">지구에도 등산로 입구가 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">예전부터 이용돼 있는 등산로로 승용차 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">10</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">대 정도를 세울 수 있는 주차장이 정비돼
있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">긴 나무 계단을 끝까지 올라가면 가미나리</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">雷</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">신사의 사당이 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">등산로 입구에서 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">40</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">분 정도 가면 사야도</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">西渡</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">등산로 입구에서 오는 코스와 합류하고 바로
둘렛길과 합한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">정상까지 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">시간 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">20</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">분 소요</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.</span></span></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">[1]</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">야마부시</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">山伏</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://terms.naver.com/entry.nhn?cid=3278&docId=1394080&mobile&categoryId=3781"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">슈겐도</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> </span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">수행을 한 사람</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. ‘</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">슈겐자</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">修驗者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)’</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">라고도 한다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">[2]</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">고메</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">合目</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">산을 정상 높이의</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> 10</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">분의</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> 1</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">씩으로 나누어 표시하는
것</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<span style="font-size: large;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><2012</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">4</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">29</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일에 촬영한 동영상</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">니이치바
등산로 입구에서 원점 회귀</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">)></span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-2035382886398965782015-02-01T13:19:00.001+09:002015-02-08T12:20:53.707+09:002月のドルウォン相場、1,070~1,100ウォンの見通し<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">三星先物によると</span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">2</span><span style="color: red;">月のドルウォン相場は<span lang="EN-US">1</span>ドル<span lang="EN-US">=1,070</span>~<span lang="EN-US">1,100</span>ウォン</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">の間で動くとの見通しだ。</span><span style="background-color: yellow; color: red;">円ウォン相場は<span lang="EN-US">100</span>円<span lang="EN-US">=900</span>~<span lang="EN-US">940</span>ウォン、ユーロウォン相場は<span lang="EN-US">1</span>ユーロ<span lang="EN-US">=1,200</span>~<span lang="EN-US">1,260</span>ウォン</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">の間での動きを予想している。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">三星先物が、去る<span lang="EN-US">28</span>日に発表した「<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月の為替展望」レポートによると、<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月の為替相場は金融市場が安定性を取り戻しリスクオン(選好)の地合いが強まる中、ドル円相場の上昇と円ウォン相場に対する当局の警戒から下値支持力を確認することになりそうだ。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">しかし、ドル高の調整ムードや外国人によるウォン資産の買い入れ、原油安による供給圧力の強まりなどから急騰も期待しにくく、はっきりとした方向性は見えにくい見通しだ。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">また、欧州中銀(<span lang="EN-US">ECB</span>)が大規模な量的緩和の発表をしたことで金融政策の方向性の違いが再び注目される中、ソウル外国為替市場も韓国銀行のスタンス変化に敏感に反応すると見られる。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;">11</span><span style="color: #333333;">月初めの当局者による「円と同調化」発言以降<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月まで、ウォン相場が動く要因の中心となったのがドル円相場であった。円との同調化により、それまでドルウォン相場を動かしてきた要因との相関性を失いつつある。域外の相関関係が、ユーロ・豪ドル・主要国の株価指数・原材料価格と、ドル指数・新興国スプレッドとの間に正の相関関係を示しており、リスクオフ時にウォンが値上がりする現象が現れている。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: yellow; color: red;">当分はドル円相場がドルウォン相場の主な動因として作用する可能性が高い</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">と見られる。現在のウォンには、健全なファンダメンタルと原油安による受益国という肯定的要因と、世界的な自国通貨安誘導の流れに便乗する可能性(金利引き下げ、もしくは強力な介入)が常在しているため、方向性がつかみにくい、というのがその理由だ。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">したがって、当局による円ウォン相場のレベルコントロールが期待される中、ドル円同調化プレイが継続し、市場は韓国銀行がスタンスを変化させる可能性に敏感に反応を見せると予想される。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">対外環境を見ると、<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月の外国為替市場はドル高の調整、ユーロドルの反騰、ドル円の下値支持力が見込まれる。米連邦公開市場委員会(<span lang="EN-US">FOMC</span>)のない<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月は主要国における金融政策の追加緩和の可能性が低く、経済指標の発表に敏感に反応する可能性が高い。ドル指数はユーロレベルの負担、米指標の鈍化、ユーロ圏指標の反騰などを反映し、調整が予想される。ただ、ドル円は全般的にリスクオン(選好)の地合いが強まることにより、下値支持力を確認すると見られる。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">さらに<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月の需給は、外貨供給優位の相場が予想される。季節的に<span lang="EN-US">1-3</span>月期は原油の輸出入が本格化せず供給圧力が鈍化するが、原油価格の暴落がこれを弱めてくれている。また、外国人によるウォン資産の買い入れも、主要国の金融緩和やウォン資産の健全性をベースに、緩やかな流入が期待される。当局は、世界的な通貨戦争に対する懸念が高まる中、今後も継続して市場をコントロールし、下値支持力を与えてくれると見られる。なお、<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月には旧正月の連休が待ち受けており、連休前に供給圧力が強まる可能性も念頭に置かねばならないだろう。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">一方、三星先物によると、今年のドルウォン相場は上昇を継続するとの見通しだ。<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月末<span lang="EN-US">1,060</span>ウォン、<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月末<span lang="EN-US">1,080</span>ウォン、<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月末<span lang="EN-US">1,090</span>ウォン、<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月末<span lang="EN-US">1,110</span>ウォンを記録すると予想した。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;"><韓国 週刊貿易より></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://jedam15.koreafree.co.kr/news/view.html?section=1&category=6&item=&no=3465">http://jedam15.koreafree.co.kr/news/view.html?section=1&category=6&item=&no=3465</a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-24577314214412838732015-01-31T07:13:00.001+09:002015-01-31T07:14:46.451+09:002015년은 “역 플라자”로 향하는 이정표<div style="background: white; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2013</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">12</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">27</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일에 투고한 연재칼럼 주제는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“2014</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년에도 계속될 엔화약세로의 역사적 대전환</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이었다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그 골자는</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">역사는 단기</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">중기</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">장기라는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">3</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">개의 파도로 인해 결정된다고 하는 </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%ED%8E%98%EB%A5%B4%EB%82%AD_%EB%B8%8C%EB%A1%9C%EB%8D%B8"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">페르낭 브로델</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 역사관을 원용해</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">단기예측은 잡음의 영향으로 어렵지만 장기예측은
가능하다고 설명했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">실제로 일본의 미래는 중기적으로 보면 인구감소</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">장기적으로는 에너지 확보의 불안을 요인으로
국가쇠퇴가 진행되고 있으며</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">필연적으로 통화 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">은 절하될 것으로 예상했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그리고 단기적으로는 구로다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">黑田</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">풋</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">비호</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에 지탱된 리스크 온의 움직임과 더불어
엔화약세가 진행될 것으로 예측했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">아베노믹스 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년째인 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2014</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년을 되돌아보면</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">도쿄 주식시장은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2013</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년의 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">50%</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에는 못 미치지만 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">10% </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">정도 속등했으며 달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 환율은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2012</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">11</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 중의원 해산 시의 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">81</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 부근에서 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2013</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 말에는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">105</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그리고 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2014</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년에는 한때 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">122</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 부근까지 절하됐다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2015</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년에도 운명적인 국가쇠퇴의 흐름에 거스를
도리가 없으며</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">무역수지와 재정수지라는 쌍둥이 적자도 더불어 엔화약세 경향이
계속될 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">다만 근시안적으로 보면 달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 환율은 유가 하락으로 인해 달러 수급이
완화됨에 따라 엔화강세 움직임을 나타내는 장면이 증가할 수도 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그러나 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1971</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 닉슨 쇼크를 시작으로</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> 40</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년에 걸친 엔화강세는 이미 종언을 고했으며</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, 2015</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">75</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(2011</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">을 절정으로 엔화약세로의 역사적 대전환이
시작됐음을 확인할 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년이 되는 것이 아닌가 싶다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">아베노믹스는 고비인 제</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">막으로</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">아베노믹스 제</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">막은 주식상승과 엔화약세가 진행된 결과
기업업적 개선과 실업율 하락 등 일정한 성과를 거뒀으나</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">국민 전체에 재산이 퍼져나가는 소위 트리클다운
효과는 나타나지 않아 실질급여 하락으로 개인소비가 늘지 않는 상태로 막을 내렸다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">아베노믹스 제</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">막은 국민의 신임을 받아 소비세 재증세가
실시될 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2017</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">4</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월을 향해 디플레 탈피와 성장촉진을 목표로
정책수단이 총동원될 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">구체적으로는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">세 개의 화살</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">” </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">중 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">세 번째 화살</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">을 실현하는 것이 과제이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">아베노믹스에 대한 정책평가로서는 하마다
코이치</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">浜田宏一</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">내각관방참여</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">예일대학교 명예교수</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2013</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> 11</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">15</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일 강연에서 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">세 개의 화살</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">을 대학교의 성적표에 따라 금융정책 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">A, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">재정정책 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">B, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">성장전략 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">E</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">로 평가한 것이 유명한데</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">실제로는 금융정책은 시간벌이에 불과하고
재정정책으로 인한 수요확대 효과가 희미해지고 있는 현재</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">공급측 개혁의 진심도가 추궁 당하고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">다만 지난 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년간에 여러 목표가 내세워졌으나 기성세력
앞에서는 구조개혁 수행이 어렵다는 것은 명백하다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">또 예를 들어 날카롭게 파고 든 인구문제를
봐도 여성의 노동참가를 촉진하는 한편 합계특수 출산율을 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2013</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년의 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1.4 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">정도에서 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1.8 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">정도로 올리는 등 여성들의 분발에 대한
높은 기대는 심상치 않다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">과연 아베노믹스는 저출산이 진행되는 인구동태에 극적인 변화를
주고 국가쇠퇴의 속도를 줄일 수 있을까</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">? </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이렇게 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">세 번째 화살</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 대부분이 그림의 떡으로 끝나는 의심을
떨칠 수 없으나 하여튼 그 행방을 지켜볼 수밖에 없을 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가령 성장전략이 유효히 기능하게 됐다고
해도 늦은 감이 있는 점은 부정 못하며</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">당분간은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">첫 번째 화살</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">인 일본은행에 의한 양적·질적 금융완화
정책 동향이 주목받게 된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이미 일본은행의 밸런스시트는 국내총생산</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(GDP) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">비 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">60%</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에 도달했으며</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, 20% </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">대인 미 연방준비이사회</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(FRB), </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">영국중앙은행</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(BOE)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">와 비교해도 돌출해 있어 그 자산을 대가로
발행되는 통화 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 신임에 의심이 생길 가능성이 높아진다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그러나 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2015</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년도를 중심으로 하는 기간에 코어 소비자
물가지수가 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2% </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">정도에 도달하는 것을 목표로 하는 한 현행 금융완화 정책에 큰
변화는 없을 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">게다가 그 지수는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2014</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">10</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월과</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">11</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 두 달 연속으로 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1%</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">를 밑돌았고</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">소비증세 영향은 제외</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">), 6</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월의 직근 최고치 수준에 비해 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">40% </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이상이나 하락한 유가가 더욱 내림세로 작용할
것은 필연적이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">따라서 추가 완화책의 실시를 독촉하는 시장의 목소리는 또다시
높아져갈 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">미국에서의 출구전략은 테이퍼링을 마치고 금리인상 시기의 모색으로
이행됐는데</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일본에서는 구로다 총재의 임기가 만료될 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2018</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 봄까지 화제가 되지 않을 것이라는 견해도
떠오르고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그렇다면 미국과 일본의 금융정책 방향성 차이는 엔화약세 기조를
뒷받침하게 될 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">한편 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2012</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">11</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월부터 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">50%</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에 이르는 엔화 절하가 실체경제에 미치는
영향을 보면</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">고용 상황은 점차 개선되고 있으나 설비 투자에 별다른 움직임이
보이지 않는다는 것은 앞으로 일본경제의 성장을 내다보는 데에 악재가 된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">수출수량 증가에 따라 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">중소를 포함한</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">기업활동이 활성화될 것으로 기대됐는데 수량효과
실현에 시간이 걸리고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">기업의 리쇼어링</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">본국회귀</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이 본격화되는 움직임도 부족하다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">지금까지 일본기업의 해외 시프트는 원화강세
대책을 주된 목적으로 실시돼왔다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">아울러 부수효과로서 중국과 동남아는 노동 코스트가 낮은 점도
매력적이며 이 장점도 포함해 국제분업 체제가 정착됐다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그 결과 앞으로 엔화약세가 다소 진행됐다고
해도 리쇼어링 움직임이 크게 일어날 가능성은 적고</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">국내에서 본격적으로 설비투자를 불러일으킬
가능성도 낮다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">즉 현재의 엔화약세는 국내생산을 확대시키는 장점이 제한적인데
비해 수입물가 상승으로 인한 인플레 세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US">(inflation tax)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">로 국민의 어깨에 내리누르는 부담감이 크다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그럼에도 지난 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년간의 엔화약세 주식상승은 주식 보유자들에게
캐피털 게인을 얻게 했으며</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">또 많은 수출기업의 업무이익을 올린 점에서 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">좋은 엔화약세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">라고 부를 수 있었다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그러나 앞으로 더욱 엔화약세가 진행되면
교역조건의 악화와 국민생활의 압박</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그리고 장기금리 상승에 따른 국채 이자지불 증대로 재정악화 등
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">나쁜 엔화약세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">” </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">측면이 강해질 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">=173</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔을 일소에 부칠 수 있을지</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1985</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">9</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">22</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일 플라자 합의를 계기로 미국의 달러약세
정책에 동조한 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">G5</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가 달러매도 협조개입을 계속해 달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 환율은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">=240</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 수준에서 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 반 후에는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">150</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔으로 하락하고 마침내 루블 합의로 인해
그 수준에서 역개입이 실시됨에 이르렀다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그 후 달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 환율은 때마침 무역수지 흑자와 아울러
엔화강세 추이를 계속해 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1995</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년에 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">79</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔에 도달했다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">현재 일본은행이 실시하는 금융완화 정책은
엔화약세 정책이라고도 할 수 있는 것이며</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일본은 달러강세의 수준정정이었던 플라자 합의와 정반대인 엔화강세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러약세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 수준정정 즉 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">역 플라자의 길</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">을 걷기 시작한 듯하다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">실제로 무역수지는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2011</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년을 경계로 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1981</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 이후 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">30</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 이어진 흑자에서 적자로 크게 전환됐다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">게다가 외국증권 투자비율을 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">40%</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">로 인상하기로 한 연금적립금 관리운용 독립행정법인</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(GPIF)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">를 비롯해 국내의 기관 투자가와 개인 투자가들은
인플레 그리고 엔화약세로 인한 엔 자산의 감가를 막기 위해 포트폴리오 리밸런스에 의한 해외투자 즉 캐피털 플라이트를 적극화하고 있으며 그 흐름은
정착됐다고 할 수 있겠다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">참고로 장기차트를 보면 </span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 환율에서 당면목표 수준은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2007</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년의 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">124</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">이지만</span><span style="background-color: yellow;"> </span></span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그 포인트가 무너지면 다음 목표는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1998</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년의 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">147</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이 된다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그리고 </span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">75</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(2011</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">을 고점</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, 124</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔을 네크라인으로
하면 고점과 네크라인의 차이</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(124</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">-75</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">49</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이며 결과적으로 </span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 환율을 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">173</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(124</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">+49</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">을 향할 것</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">으로 내다볼 수 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이러한 차트적 사고를 쉽게 일소에 부칠
수 있지만 일본경제를 둘러싸는 환경이 격변하고 있다면 마음에 잡아두는 가치는 있을 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">세계는 인구증대와 기술혁신으로 성장을 도모하고
있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이러한 상황에서 오로지 일본은 인구가 감소하는 한편에서 산업
경쟁력의 쇠퇴로 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">모노즈쿠리</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">물건 만들기</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">국가</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 가산이 기울기 시작해 환율조정에 대한
의존도가 높아지고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. 2015</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">역 플라자</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">로 향하는 이정표가 될지도 모른다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">로이터 외환 포럼</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">></span></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://jp.reuters.com/article/jp_forum/idJPKBN0K50D120141230"><span style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">http://jp.reuters.com/article/jp_forum/idJPKBN0K50D120141230</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Gulim",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-37408319304928335822015-01-30T05:21:00.003+09:002015-01-30T05:21:46.212+09:00徳裕山(トギュサン/1,614m/全羅北道・慶尚南道)<div style="margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">徳裕山は</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%85%A8%E7%BE%85%E5%8C%97%E9%81%93"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">全羅北道</span></span></a><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%8C%82%E6%9C%B1%E9%83%A1"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">茂朱郡</span></span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">と</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%95%B7%E6%B0%B4%E9%83%A1"><span lang="EN-US">長水郡</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%85%B6%E5%B0%9A%E5%8D%97%E9%81%93"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">慶尚南道</span></span></a><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B1%85%E6%98%8C%E9%83%A1"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">居昌郡</span></span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">と</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%92%B8%E9%99%BD%E9%83%A1"><span lang="EN-US">咸陽郡</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">にまたがる山である。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">最高峰は香積峰(ヒャンジョッポン)で、徳が豊かで寛大な母山という意から徳裕山と名付けられた。慶尚南道居昌郡と</span>全羅北道茂朱郡安城面(アンソンミ<span style="color: #333333;">ョン)、雪川面(ソルチョンミョン)の境にそびえており、北徳裕山(香積峰)と南徳裕山(<span lang="EN-US">1,507m</span>)に分けられる。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">南徳裕山は慶尚南道居昌郡、咸陽郡と</span>全羅北道<span style="color: #333333;">長水郡の境にそびえている。約<span lang="EN-US">20km</span>にわたる両ピーク間には、標高<span lang="EN-US">1,300</span>~<span lang="EN-US">1,400m</span>の</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B0%8F%E7%99%BD%E5%B1%B1%E8%84%88"><span lang="EN-US">小白山脈</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">の主稜線が北東から南西方向へと伸び、慶尚南道と</span>全羅北道の道境を成している。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">主峰の香積峰を中心に、茂豊面(ムプンミョン)の三峰山(サンボンサン<span lang="EN-US"> 1,254m</span>)など標高<span lang="EN-US">1,300m</span>前後の峰々が連なる稜線は別名「徳裕山脈」とも呼ばれている。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">東西の斜面からは、<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%8D%97%E6%B1%9F"><span lang="EN-US">南江</span></a></span>や黄江(ファンガン)、<span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%8C%A6%E6%B1%9F_(%E9%9F%93%E5%9B%BD)"><span lang="EN-US">錦江</span></a></span>などの源流となる数多くの沢が流れ、<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%B4%9B%E6%9D%B1%E6%B1%9F"><span lang="EN-US">洛東江</span></a></span>水系と錦江水系の分水嶺の役割を果たしている。植生は、<span lang="EN-US">250</span>種余りの植物と<span lang="EN-US">116</span>種の鳥類、<span lang="EN-US">446</span>種の昆虫類、<span lang="EN-US">95</span>種のクモ類の棲息が確認されている。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">渓谷は全部で<span lang="EN-US">8</span>か所あるが、特に茂朱と茂豊の間を流れ、錦江支流の南大川(ナムデチョン)へと流れ込む長さ<span lang="EN-US">30km</span>の茂朱九千洞(ムジュクチョンドン)は、全国的に広く知られた名所である。武夷九谷(ムイグゴッ)を始めとした九千洞<span lang="EN-US">33</span>景や七連滝(チルリョンポッポ)、龍湫滝(ヨンチュポッポ)などが壮観で、安城渓谷(アンソンゲゴッ)、松渓寺渓谷(ソンゲサゲゴッ)、山水里渓谷(サンスリゲゴッ)なども名所に挙げられる。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US">6</span>月初旬には、<span lang="EN-US">20km</span>にわたる稜線と登山道沿いに咲き広がる<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%AF%E3%83%AD%E3%83%95%E3%83%8D%E3%83%84%E3%83%84%E3%82%B8"><span lang="EN-US">クロフネツツジ</span></a></span>の群落が見頃となり、夏に入れば涼やかな九千洞渓谷が避暑客であふれ返る。そして、秋は赤く色づいた紅葉が、冬は雪に覆われたチョウセンシラベ(朝鮮白檜)や<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%A4%E3%83%81%E3%82%A4"><span lang="EN-US">イチイ</span></a></span>、空に舞い散る吹雪が壮観である。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">九千洞を過ぎ、香積峰まで残り<span lang="EN-US">3km</span>のところに、千年の古刹、白蓮寺(ペンニョンサ)がある。ここには梅月堂浮屠(メウォルダンブド 全羅北道有形文化財<span lang="EN-US">43</span>)、白蓮寺階段(全羅北道地方記念物<span lang="EN-US">42</span>)、靜觀堂浮屠(チョングァンダンブド 全羅北道有形文化財<span lang="EN-US">102</span>)などの文化財がある。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US">1975</span>年<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月に、一帯が国立公園に指定された。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><<span lang="EN-US">2011</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日に撮影した動画><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "MS Pゴシック"; mso-bidi-font-family: "MS Pゴシック"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><登山地図></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "MS Pゴシック"; mso-bidi-font-family: "MS Pゴシック"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: large;">(動画の<span style="color: red;">登り=赤</span> <span style="color: blue;">下り=青</span>)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-21304309186166516152015-01-30T05:15:00.002+09:002015-01-30T05:15:43.410+09:00아오소야마(靑麻山/799.5m/미야기현)<div style="background: white; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EB%8F%84%ED%98%B8%EC%BF%A0_%EC%9E%90%EB%8F%99%EC%B0%A8%EB%8F%84"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">도호쿠 자동차도</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">를 북상하며 시로이시</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">白石</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">나들목 부근에 접어들면 왼쪽에 커다랗고
듬직한 쌍봉우리가 나타난다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">바로 아오소야마다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">멀리 볼 수 없을 경우 등은 자오</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">藏王</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">연봉과 착각할 정도로 당당한 모습이지만</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그 연봉 동쪽에 위치한 독립봉이며 오래된
</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EC%84%B1%EC%B8%B5_%ED%99%94%EC%82%B0"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">복식화산</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">독립봉이라고 해도 실제로는 봉우리가 몇
개 있으며 특히 정상 서쪽에 있는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">아케라야마</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">10m </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">더 높다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">예전에는 </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EB%82%98%EB%9D%BC_%EC%8B%9C%EB%8C%80"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">나라시대</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">부터 </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%ED%97%A4%EC%9D%B4%EC%95%88_%EC%8B%9C%EB%8C%80"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">헤이안시대</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">오캇타야마</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">大刈田山</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">라고 불리며 자오 연봉 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">갓타미네</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">刈田嶺</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 분화를 진정시키기 위해 요배한 산이라고
전해진다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">그만큼 자오 연봉의 조망은 더할 나위 없다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">시대가 내려와서 정상에는 아오소 신사가
지어지고 </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EC%97%90%EB%8F%84_%EC%8B%9C%EB%8C%80"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에도시대</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">말기쯤에는 슈겐자</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[1]</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가 한창 신앙 등산을 했다고 한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">등산로는 동쪽에 두 군대</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">서쪽에 한 군대</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">모두 세 군대 있으며 남동쪽의 무선 중계소에서
정상까지 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">시간 소요</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">또 서쪽은 벌채로 인해 길이 거칠어 주의가
필요하다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">[1]</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">슈겐자</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">修驗者</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://terms.naver.com/entry.nhn?cid=3278&docId=1394080&mobile&categoryId=3781"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">슈겐도</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> </span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">수행을 한 사람</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<span style="font-size: large;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><2010</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">10</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">27</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일에 촬영한 동영상</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">무선
중계소에서 정상까지 왕복</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">)></span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-54240693540985848162015-01-07T17:06:00.006+09:002015-01-07T17:08:02.042+09:00「900ウォンラインの攻防」、円安ウォン高どこまで?<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">急激な円安により対円でのウォン高が進み、<span lang="EN-US">100</span>円<span lang="EN-US">=900</span>ウォン台がぐっと迫ってきた。経常収支黒字などでウォンの切り上げ圧力が続く一方、円は引き続き値下がりし</span><span style="background-color: white;">、</span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">2015</span><span style="color: red;">年には</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">100</span><span style="color: red;">円</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">=800</span><span style="color: red;">ウォン台への下落もありうる</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">との見込みだ。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;">2014</span><span style="color: #333333;">年<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月まで<span lang="EN-US">100</span>円<span lang="EN-US">=1000</span>ウォンを上回っていた円ウォン相場は、<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月に平均<span lang="EN-US">945.10</span>ウォンへ下落した後、<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月<span lang="EN-US">8</span>日には<span lang="EN-US">6</span>年<span lang="EN-US">9</span>か月ぶりの底値<span lang="EN-US">919</span>ウォン台にまで下落した。アベノミクスによる日本の量的緩和策と<span lang="EN-US">2014</span>年中に進んだウォン高により、円ウォン相場は<span lang="EN-US">2012</span>年<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月の平均<span lang="EN-US">1288.23</span>ウォンから下落(円安ウォン高)してきた。特に<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月<span lang="EN-US">31</span>日、日銀のサプライズ追加量的緩和により火のついた円安余波が円ウォン相場のレベルを引き下げてきた。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;">◇ </span><span style="color: #333333;">円とウォンが同じような動き、円ウォン相場の下落は今のところ緩やか<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">円安が加速し、円ウォン相場も下落傾向にあるが、ウォンが円の動きをぴったりと追いかけているためにそのスピードは速くない。ウォン円相場に対する当局の介入警戒感に加え、韓国の輸出競争力に対する懸念が市場に反映され、これまでは円が値下がりすればウォンも共に値下がりする傾向が維持されてきたためである。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">また、ウォンも円と同様、世界的なドル高の影響を受けており、ドル<span lang="EN-US">/</span>ウォンとドル<span lang="EN-US">/</span>円で計算されるクロスレートが急落する可能性は低いと見られる。ドル円相場が円安となれば、ウォンも値下がり傾向にあるからだ。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">さらに、日本の当局による円安懸念から、円安傾向が一息つくという見方もある。円安は、日本の輸出企業にとっては有利だが、内需企業や消費者の購買力の面では不利となる。このことは当局も認識しており、<span lang="EN-US">1</span>ドル<span lang="EN-US">125</span>円以上に円安が進むことは難しいとの見立てだ。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">パク・ソンウッ韓国金融研究院マクロ国際金融研究室長は、「円安は、日本側の要因のみならず、韓国も共に影響を受ける米国の好景気によるものであることから、円ウォンの同じ動きはある程度継続するものと見られる」とし、「日本の国内でも円安によるデメリットがあり、ドル円相場も<span lang="EN-US">120</span>円ライン以上では急騰しにくいだろう」と予測した。円ウォンクロスレートも大幅な下落はしないだろうとの説明だ。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;">◇ 2015</span><span style="color: #333333;">年の下半期にウォン安ドル高が転換か? 円ウォン相場は<span lang="EN-US">800</span>ウォン台に下落の見通し<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">しかし、<span lang="EN-US">2015</span>年に入ると、ウォン安が円安のスピードについて行けず、逆にウォン高へと方向転換し、円ウォンクロスレートが<span lang="EN-US">850</span>ウォン台にまで下落する可能性もあるとの声も出ている。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">LG</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">経済研究院のイ・チャンソン首席研究委員は、「円安が<span lang="EN-US">1</span>ドル<span lang="EN-US">125</span>円まで進むとの見方もあるが、ウォン安が円安のレンジに追随するのは困難」とし、「両通貨の切り下げスピードの差が広がり続け、</span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">2015</span><span style="color: red;">年上半期のうちに円ウォン相場の下値が<span lang="EN-US">850</span>ウォンにまで下落</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">することもありうる」と見通した。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;">15</span><span style="color: #333333;">年上半期は米国の金融政策転換が中心的に注目され、ドル高が円とウォンの双方に影響を及ぼすと見られるが、自国の金融緩和で引き起こされた円安がウォン安よりもさらに速い可能性が高い。加えて、米国が金利引き上げを開始し米国の金融政策の不確実性が解消された後は、経常収支黒字などウォンの切り上げ材料が浮き彫りになり、ウォン高に転換する可能性がある。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">チョン・ミンギュ韓国投資証券エコノミストは、「原油価格下落により韓国の経常黒字が当初の予想よりさらに膨らみ、ウォンの切り上げ圧力が高まる可能性がある」とし、「円ウォン相場が<span lang="EN-US">800</span>ウォン台後半に下落する時期を<span lang="EN-US">2016</span>年と予想していたが、これが早まり<span lang="EN-US">15</span>年上半期になるだろう」と予想した。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">チョン エコノミストは、「<span lang="EN-US">2015</span>年に米国の金利引き上げが始まれば円安はさらに進む」とした上で、「上半期はウォンもドルに対し値下がりすると見られるが、経常収支黒字などにより下半期にはウォン高に転換する可能性がある」と見越した。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;">現代経済研究院のオ・ジュンボム研究員もまた、「韓国は輸出業績が好調で外国人の投資マネーも着実に流入する勢いを見せており、<span lang="EN-US">2015</span>年下半期に入るとウォン高になる可能性がある」としながら、「円ウォン相場は<span lang="EN-US">800</span>ウォン台後半まで下落することもありうる」と見通した。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;"><韓国 マネートゥデイニュースより></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.mt.co.kr/view/mtview.php?type=1&no=2014120916415069679&outlink=1">http://www.mt.co.kr/view/mtview.php?type=1&no=2014120916415069679&outlink=1</a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-59400805782609993272014-12-26T16:54:00.001+09:002014-12-26T16:54:28.604+09:00내년은 완만한 달러강세, 장기 엔화강세 추세가 전환될지<div style="background: white; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">내년의 달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔은 완만한 달러강세가 될 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">약 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">30</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 만에 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">최근 하락폭을 전부 만회</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">하는 것도 시야에 들어와 있어</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">지난 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">40</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년간에 걸친 달러약세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔화강세 장기 추세가 달러강세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔화약세 추세로 전환될 것이라는 기대가
나올 가능성이 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이제까지 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">7</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">번 있었던 상승 국면 중에서 최근 하락폭을
전부 만회한 적은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1980</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년대 전반의 딱 한 번밖에 없었다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">다만 최근에는 일본의 무역수지가 적자로
전락해 그것이 정착된 데다가</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">정부와 일본은행이 지금까지의 디스인플레 국가로부터 해외와 같은
인플레 국가로 변하려고 정책을 동원하고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔이 앞으로 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">2007</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">6</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월에 기록한 리먼쇼크 전 최고치</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> 124.14</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔을 웃돌아 전부 만회 이상을 달성한다면</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, 11</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">10</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월의 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">75.35</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔이 대바닥이 되며 장기 추세가 점진적인
달러강세</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔화약세로 바뀌어갈 것으로 기대될 수도 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">내년 중반에는 미국의 금리인상이 진행될
것으로 보인다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">달러강세로 인해 신흥국에서 자금이 회수되어 세계경제의 리스크가
될 것이라는 견해도 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">하지만 신흥국 경제에 대한 시장심리 악화를 초래한다고 하기보다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">미국이 금리를 정상화할 수 있을 정도의
경제상황이 되는 것을 이점으로 인식될 수도 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">지난 번의 미 연방공개시장위원회</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(FOMC)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에서는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">나홀로 승리</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">” </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">상태인 미국의 경제상황뿐만 아니라 유가
하락에 흔들리는 시장에 배려하는 모습도 보이며 그것이 주식시장을 지탱한 면이 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">앞으로도 미국은 꽤 신중히 각 방면에 배려하면서
금리수준을 정상화시켜 나갈 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">내년 말의 달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔은 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">123</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">으로 예상한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="background-color: yellow; color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">레인지는</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> 달러</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">/</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔의 변동률로 인해 상하방향에 오버슈트하는
분을 고려해 </span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">116.50-129</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="color: red; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔</span></span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> 정도로 예상한다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">세계경제가 무너지거나 신흥국 시장이 불안정해지지
않으면 일시적으로 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">115</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔을 밑돌 정도의 쇼크가 있더라도 장기화되지 않고 연말에 걸쳐
</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">120</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">엔 대를 유지할 것이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="background-color: white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">로이터 외환 포럼</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">></span></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://jp.reuters.com/article/jpfxcomment/idJPL3N0U30LL20141219"><span style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">http://jp.reuters.com/article/jpfxcomment/idJPL3N0U30LL20141219</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Gulim",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-4145881219222092622014-12-26T16:51:00.000+09:002014-12-26T16:51:40.127+09:00周王山(チュワンサン/722m/慶尚北道)<div style="margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">周王山は</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%85%B6%E5%B0%9A%E5%8C%97%E9%81%93"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">慶尚北道</span></span></a><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%9D%92%E6%9D%BE%E9%83%A1"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">青松郡</span></span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">と</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%9B%88%E5%BE%B3%E9%83%A1"><span lang="EN-US">盈徳郡</span></a></span><span style="color: #333333;">にまたがっている。<span lang="EN-US">1976</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月<span lang="EN-US">30</span>日、国立公園に指定された。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">周王山一帯の地質は、風化や侵食に対して強い抵抗力を持つ</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%99%BD%E4%BA%9C%E7%B4%80"><span lang="EN-US">白亜紀</span></a></span>楡川層群の中性~酸性火山岩類で構成されている。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings;">l<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]-->注山池(チュサンジ)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">農業用水を確保するために作られた人工湖で、根と幹の下部まで水に浸かった<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%83%9E%E3%83%AB%E3%83%90%E3%83%A4%E3%83%8A%E3%82%AE"><span lang="EN-US">マルバヤナギ</span></a></span>が数本生い茂っている。<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%AD%E3%83%A0%E3%83%BB%E3%82%AE%E3%83%89%E3%82%AF"><span lang="EN-US">金基德</span></a></span>監督「<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%98%A5%E5%A4%8F%E7%A7%8B%E5%86%AC%E3%81%9D%E3%81%97%E3%81%A6%E6%98%A5"><span lang="EN-US">春夏秋冬そして春」</span></a></span>のロケ地として知られる。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings;">l<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]-->寺沢(チョルコル)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">寺沢は梨田里(イジョルリ)にある沢で、入口の奇岩の姿が壮観である。秀麗な沢で、水が冷たい。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings;">l<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="color: #333333;">周王沢(チュワンケゴッ)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">周王山は素晴らしい景観を誇っており、それぞれの峰ごとに、中国の秦から逃亡してきた周王にまつわる伝説が伝わるなど名勝としての価値が高く、<span lang="EN-US">2003</span>年<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月<span lang="EN-US">31</span>日、大韓民国の名勝第<span lang="EN-US">11</span>号に指定された。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: large;"><<span lang="EN-US">2010</span>年<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">26</span>日に撮影した動画><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/AzZ8kSvqLE0?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "MS Pゴシック"; mso-bidi-font-family: "MS Pゴシック"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><登山地図></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'MS Pゴシック';"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #333333;">(動画の</span><span style="color: red;">登り=赤</span><span style="color: #333333;"> </span><span style="color: blue;">下り=青</span><span style="color: #333333;">)</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03066600999850109240noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-564403729751468141.post-53036322244540683702014-12-26T16:48:00.000+09:002014-12-26T16:48:43.509+09:00후타마타야마(二岐山/1,544.3m/후쿠시마현)<div style="background: white; margin: 2.05pt; text-indent: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">후타마타야마는 </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EC%98%A4%EC%9A%B0_%EC%82%B0%EB%A7%A5"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">오우 산맥</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">남부에 위치해 있으며</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%ED%9B%84%EC%BF%A0%EC%8B%9C%EB%A7%88_%ED%98%84"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">후쿠시마 현</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EC%9D%B4%EC%99%80%EC%84%B8_%EA%B5%B0"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이와세 군</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EB%8D%B4%EC%97%90%EC%9D%B4_%EC%B4%8C"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">덴에이 촌</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">과 </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EB%AF%B8%EB%82%98%EB%AF%B8%EC%95%84%EC%9D%B4%EC%A6%88_%EA%B5%B0"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">미나미아이즈 군</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EC%8B%9C%EB%AA%A8%EA%B3%A0_%EC%A0%95"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">시모고 정</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에 걸치는 </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EC%A0%9C4%EA%B8%B0"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">제</span><span style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">4</span><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">기</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">화산이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. 2</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">등 삼각점인 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">후타마타야마</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가 설치돼 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">오카와하토리</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">大川羽鳥</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">현립 자연공원으로 지정돼 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EC%95%88%EC%82%B0%EC%95%94"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">안산암</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">으로 된 </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EC%84%B1%EC%B8%B5_%ED%99%94%EC%82%B0"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">성층화산</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://terms.naver.com/entry.nhn?docId=395063&cid=50316&categoryId=50316"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">용암돔</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">이다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">북북서 방향으로 흐른 </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://terms.naver.com/entry.nhn?docId=1130106&cid=40942&categoryId=32298"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">용암류</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">지형이 명확히 남아 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">. </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">삼각점이 있는 봉우리 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">오토코다케</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">男岳</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)”</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 북서 방향 약 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">0.5km</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">에 또 하나의 봉우리 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">온나다케</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">女岳</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)”(</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">해발 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1,504m)</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">가 늘어서 마치 쌍둥이와 같은 특징적인
산세를 가지고 있다</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">산 속에는 </span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="KO" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">부나</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">너도밤나무</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">), “</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">아스나로</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”(</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">나한백</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">의 원생림이 남아
있으며</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">, </span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">후쿠시마의
현조</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">縣鳥</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) “</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">기비타키</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”(</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">황금새</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">나 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">오루리</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”(</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">큰유리새</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">) </span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">등이 서식하고 있다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">약 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">14</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">만</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">-9</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">만년 전에 분화활동을 하고 있었다</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">국도 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">118</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">호선에서 후타마타</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">二岐</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">)</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">온천을 거쳐 등산로입구 주차장까지 약 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">8.7km. </span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">등산로입구 주차장에서
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">“</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">부나다이라</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">”</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">를 거쳐 정상까지
약 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">3.0km. </span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">약 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">1</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">시간 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">40</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">분 소요</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><2012</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">년 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">10</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">월 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">13</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">일에 촬영한 동영상</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">(</span><span lang="KO" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;">오토코다케
등산로입구에서 온나다케 등산로입구까지 종주</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Gulim, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">)></span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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